About That Timetable Posted by Michael Cohen

Marc Lynch makes a really smart point about Obama's timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan:

He spoke effectively about the logic of a clear time horizon, generating political accountability, and converting a brief military respite into lasting political gains through a clear commitment to ultimately withdraw troops.  His direct vow that the U.S. did not seek occupation or endless escalation was well said. But the problem is that such commitments are inherently non-credible.   To quote that great IR theorist Drake, we hear you talking boo but we just don't believe you. I haven't heard anybody yet say that they believed that Obama would really start drawing down in June 2011, no matter what he says.  And yet the strategy depends upon that commitment being credible, because that is what is supposed to generate the urgency for local actors to change. 

Ask yourself a question: if in 2011 the Afghan government is still mired in corruption and if the Taliban remains a potent political and military force does anyone really think that Obama is going to want to start bringing troops home? If anything, it could go in the opposite direction, particularly since the President has declared the war to be a vital national interest of the United States. How do you think that decision will play in Congress?

But I would go even a step further than Marc. The entire back half of Obama's speech felt like Ben Rhodes was channeling Barry Posner. Restraint, modesty and limitations were the buzz words. Yet, the realization of that new approach to US foreign policy will depend in large measure on Obama sticking to his plan of beginning a turnover of power to the Afghan government by 2011. In other words, you can't put in place a more realist and restrained vision of American foreign policy if you are spending $100 billion in Afghanistan and maintaining a force of 100,000 troops.

The pressure on Obama from the military and the Republicans to stay the course in Afghanistan will be profound - it makes it much more important that Congress hold Obama's feet to the fire and demand he adhere to his pledge not to make this an open-ended commitment.  Of course doing could set up a true political battle royale for not the White House and the Democratic Party.

Perhaps Marc is right that "generating domestic pressure to make his commitments on a time horizon" credible is the President's plan . .  but if so that is one dangerous political strategy. I think Bernard Finel gets it right, "The president is buying time, hoping for the best, but all he’s done is ensure we face the same debate again in an even more polarized atmosphere as we approach the 2012 presidential election."

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