Poll Finds Iranians' Support for Nuclear Weapons Dropping Posted by Heather Hurlburt

It's long been a given of the IRan debate -- I used it on a radio host just yesterday -- that Iranians across the political spectrum want nuclear weapons as an aspect of national pride and power, quite apart from their feelings about the regime.

But WorldPublicOpinion.org comes out with new survey data today that suggest this may be changing. 

WPOsays 2/3 of Iranians say they would support their country forgoing weaponization in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.  Andt hey opposed developing "an atomic bomb" 58-38 percent.

What's maybe most interesting about this -- because who knows what telephone polls in an authoritarian country actually represent -- is that these numbers are better than last year, when 51% supported developing a nuclear weapon.  Reported support for nuclear power dropped from 89% to just over 50%.

You might expect, after the summer's crackdown, that Iranians would be more afraid to state their opinions to independent pollsters.  That trendline suggests -- regardless of the absolute numbers -- the opposite. In an authoritarian country where penalties for dissent can be severe, two-thirds of respondents are now willing to tell a stranger over the phone that they'd give up nuclear weapons to get out from under sanctions.  That says something important about Iranian society. 

It suggests that the regime's insistent embrace of nuclear weapons as emblems of national prestige is tarnishing in the face of consistent offers of engagement and return to the international community.  It suggests that the tactics the Obama Administration is using to get Iran to the negotiating table in the short term are actually working to change Iranian society in the long term -- which is the only real answer to the nuclear problem.  

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Wait, I'm confused. At what point did the Iranian government 'embrace' nuclear weapons? You do realize an insistence on the right to uranium enrichment is far different from some sort of Manhattan project, right? Khameinei even issued a fatwa banning nuclear weapons in 2005 and has since then repeatedly condemned nuclear weapon as un-Islamic. Take these pronouncements as you will, but let the record be straight that at no point has the government of Iran "embraced" nuclear weapons or try to convince the Iranian people of their necessity. In fact, it's totally the opposite. Which makes all this talk of trendlines and affecting change on a society 'in the long term' (whatever that means from two years of admittedly suspect polling) pretty much absurd.

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Hi,
I had heard both the TFT and WPO polls show the vast majority of Iranians want their country to develop nuclear energy. TFT found that 89 percent of Iranians favor (including 78% who strongly favor) "the Iranian Government developing nuclear energy."WPO found that 90 percent of Iranians believe it is important (including 81% very important) for Iran "to have a full fuel cycle nuclear program."

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