Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch Posted by Michael Cohen

In today's edition of the AMCW we highlight yesterday's New York Times article about the lack of Afghan Army support for the current offensive in Helmand province:

One week after several battalions of Marines swept through the Helmand River valley, military commanders appear increasingly concerned about a lack of Afghan forces in the field.

“What I need is more Afghans,” said Brig. Gen. Larry Nicholson, commander of the Marine expeditionary brigade in Helmand Province. He accompanied the top American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, during a visit with troops at Patrol Base Jaker here on Monday.

General Nicholson and others say that the long-term success of the operation hinges on the performance of the Afghan security forces, which will have to take over eventually from the American troops. General Nicholson said the American force of almost 4,000 had been joined by about 400 effective Afghan soldiers.

Um, isn't the response to this "Duh?" Isn't an essential element of population-centric COIN, which the US military has apparently mastered, having host country support? How exactly is this mission extending the legitimacy of the Afghan government if the operation is being conducted almost solely by US troops? And how will any security gains be maximized and exploited in lieu of a capable and effective Afghan security service? These seems particularly critical when reports indicate that the Taliban has wisely (from their perspective) chosen not to engage in offensive actions against the Marines.

Now I know one response to this will be that the Afghan security services are not yet up to speed. Well then why the hell did we launch this operation? As is his wont, Joshua Foust makes the smart point that the level of planning put into this operation is just piss-poor and that the goal for this mission is not even close to being matched by the resources allocated: ***

I’m not aware of anyone who suffers under the illusion that a 4,000-man push into central Helmand is sustainable for the years it will take to properly develop the areas institutions and remaining infrastructure—that is literally a massive investment on a time scale far behind the terrible 12-month window Barack Obama’s advisers have allowed.

This point is further made by retired Australian general, Jim Molan over at Lowly Interpreter:

The pitiful lack of Afghan troops involved in KHANJAR (4000 Marines deployed but only about 650 Afghan troops) indicates that the hope of producing an Afghan force numerous and capable enough to take over counterinsurgency from the coalition is five to ten years away. Most of the Marines won't have nearby Afghan troops to provide them with local knowledge.

It's beginning to feel like this operation is a bit of a dog-and-pony show to demonstrate to American domestic audiences that we are 'doing something' in Afghanistan and making some sort of limited progress - even when we're really not. If we don't have Afghan support for this operation it means that the continued face of the war in Afghanistan will be that of a US soldier. In other words, to paraphrase LBJ, American boys will be doing what Afghan boys ought be doing for themselves. 

*** BTW, if you're at all interested in Afghanistan you need to be reading Joshua Foust's blog every day - registan.net. Rarely a day goes by that I don't learn something from Josh.

Comments

[Gunslinger]

Michael - Spot on. Taking out the outside factors of the Surge in Iraq (Awakening, Sadrist standdown), upon which this operation is loosely based, these planners seemed to have failed to include the key inside factors as well. Adequate troop numbers to do the mission, civilians for aid and capacity building, and, oh yeah, indigenous forces to whom security will be handed over to for long term security. I don't even see COIN tactics being used here - just too much potential for failure.

[Sam Roggeveen]

Really pleased you guys have linked to our blog, but it's "Lowy", not "Lowly". As in, LOWY Institute for International Policy. Thanks.

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