The Tehran Beat - UPDATED
Posted by Michael Cohen
None of us really know what's happening in Iraq right now - or what's going to happen. We're truly in the midst of "interesting times."
Since everything I know about Iran I learned in a great seminar with Nasser Hadian at Columbia University (and that was 7 years ago), I'll do my best to pass along smart analysis of the situation.
At TNR, John Judis makes a great argument as to why the Obama Administration should say less not more about what's happening in Iran:
This take from Noah Milman is worth a read:
Finally, Trita Parsi tells us all to get a grip . . . sort of:
Also keep an eye on Andrew Sullivan and Nico Pitney and Spencer Ackerman who are all on top of this in a big way.
UPDATE: Laura Secor has a fascinating post as well over at the New Yorker blog:
This is uncharted territory for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until now, the regime has survived through a combination of repression and flexibility. The dispersal of power throughout a complex system, among rival political factions, and with the limited but active participation of the voting public, has allowed a basically unpopular regime to control a large population with only limited and targeted violence. There have always been loopholes and pressure points that allow the opposition and the regime to be dance partners, even if one or both of them is secretly brandishing a knife behind the other’s back. That has been less true under Ahmadinejad than in the past. But the culture of the organized opposition under the Islamic Republic has tended to remain cautious and moderate. Many of the protesters of recent days are not calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. They are calling for their votes to be counted. More nights like last night, however, when some seven protesters were allegedly shot, could swiftly change that.
So is there any way Khamenei can dial the situation back even to the unhappy modus vivendi of June 11th? He could have the Guardian Council concede that the official figures were wrong, and assert that the vote was close enough, after all, to send the election to a second round between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. If this had been the initial announcement from the Interior Ministry on June 12th, it would have been entirely plausible. Ahmadinejad has a reliable base that could comprise as much as thirty per cent of the country, as well as all the advantages of incumbency, including access to state television; his conservative challenger, Mohsen Rezai, had amassed little momentum; and, at least until Mousavi’s late surge, there was a real contest between Mousavi and Karroubi for the hearts of the uncommitted. A split vote and a run-off would hardly have raised an eyebrow in the first instance. But to call one now, after having already endorsed a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad and called out riot police to enforce it, would be an admission that a brute power grab had been attempted and abandoned.
Parsi wins.
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