Counting the Dead in Afghanistan Posted by Patrick Barry

One thing that perplexes me about the discussion over whether the Pentagon should be publicizing enemy death tallies is that at least some of the debate seems to have hardened over the issue of whether such counts are a good measure of progress. To me that sort of misses the point.  Of course the number of insurgents killed won't determine whether we win or lose in Afghanistan. 

What publicizing those numbers might do (and I say that with a heavy dose of skepticism) is persuade people - either here in the U.S. or there in Afghanistan - that the momentum of the war is shifting.  As Nathan Hodge points out, the Taliban relies on similar propaganda, including sinister night letters sent to intimidate and coerce.  If the insurgency is engaged in operations aimed at persuading the population, why shouldn't ISAF be too? 

Now Americans and Afghans aren't dumb. There will have to be other metrics to round out the picture for a domestic audience, and Afghans will need to feel the situation improving in order to throw support behind the Government and ISAF.  Moreover, since the Obama administration is starting from a deficit both in terms of metrics (see Tony Cordesman) and Afghan support (see BBC polling), there's a real danger of relying too much on death tallies as the prism for understanding the state of the war.  But in a context where the U.S. public is nervous, and where Afghans perceive the insurgency taking hold, I wonder whether it would be silly to not attempt things that might reverse those perceptions, with publicizing death tallies is part of that exercise? 

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I would be okay with enemy death counts so long as we were also chronicling and releasing data on civilian casualties. If we only publicizing the enemy dead, it will be tougher to try to increase the incentives to launch air strikes that can reduce our support and radicalize those in the middle.

If we're accurately measuring and releasing both, I think that problem is far easier to address.

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