Obama Erases National Security Gap Posted by Adam Blickstein

Really important new polling data from GQR and Democracy Corps.  The take away:

For the first time in our research, Democrats are at full parity on perceptions of which party would best manage national security, while they have moved far ahead of the GOP on specific challenges such as Afghanistan, Iraq, working with our allies, and improving America’s image abroad.

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters – 64 percent – approve of the job Obama is doing on national security. That is 6 points higher than his already strong overall job approval rating (at 58 percent, the highest we have yet recorded). On other aspects of national security – from Iraq, to Afghanistan, to terrorism, to the president’s foreign diplomacy – the same is true: higher job approval ratings than on the President’s overall job approval.

More importantly, the generational breakdown demonstrates just how damaged the GOP's future electoral prospects may be:

Younger voters. Voters under age 30 trusted Republicans more on national security by a 27 point margin in 2003; now they trust Democrats more by 18 points, 50 to 32 percent. This strong margin of trust among younger voters could signal the start of a lasting generational shift on this set of issues.

It's fine if Republicans want to hammer Obama on national security. But it simply won't work if the public so overwhelmingly sides with Obama on the issue. The Republicans will really need a massive paradigm shift for any of their arguments to actually stick. And Dick Cheney is clearly not the man to lead them out of this wilderness as he continues to do more harm than good to the GOP brand:

The public flatly rejects the claims from former Vice President Cheney and other Republicans that Obama’s policies put America at risk. A strong majority says Obama’s policies are increasing US security – compared to the majority who now say President George W. Bush’s policies undermined America’s security. Indeed, by a 2 to 1 margin, Americans say that President Obama is doing better, not worse, than his predecessor when it comes to national security.

This national security data, coupled with the GOP's across the board downturn in terms of public opinion from the Gallup poll, especially in the (former?) Republican stronghold of the Midwest which basically birthed the party, reflects, to borrow a popular phrase, almost no "green shoots" for the GOP, except amongst their churchgoing and elderly base. After 2006 and 2008, it was going to be very hard for the GOP to rebuild their brand. What these numbers show is that as long as they cling to old ideas and old leaders, they aren't going to do anything to change this reality.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

As a result of the bellicose MSM, Bush enjoyed similar support early in his term. So what. Presidents have nearly always promoted war and bogus threats, as Obama is doing, in order to enhance their political standing. United we stand.

Anyhow, independent voters are now a plurality in the US.

[Zathras]

Polling results like these do not demonstrate that the American public endorses President Obama's approach to national security policy. They demonstrate that the American public is giving Obama the benefit of the doubt on national security policy.

The major reason it is is that Americans still blame the Republican Bush administration for most of the things they see as having gone wrong in the world. The Republican Party, with no prominent critics of Bush among its most visible figures, has boxed itself in for the time being. Over time, it is bound to climb out of that box -- earlier if Obama's administration screws up in some visible way, later if it does not. Having said that, Republicans appear to be underestimating the damage done during the last eight years, particularly the extent to which their party is still identified with the deeply unpopular Bush.

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I would say the one thing Obama can do as the leader of the party is to mentor a new generation of "National Security Democrats". And then we need to create a support system like EMILY's List to get them elected.

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This national security data, coupled with the GOP's across the board downturn in terms of public opinion from the Gallup poll, especially in the (former?) Republican stronghold of the Midwest which basically birthed the party, reflects, to borrow a popular phrase, almost no "green shoots" for the GOP, except amongst their churchgoing and elderly base. After 2006 and 2008, it was going to be very hard for the GOP to rebuild their brand. What these numbers show is that as long as they cling to old ideas and old leaders, they aren't going to do anything to change this reality. seslisohbet seslichat

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