Droning On Posted by Patrick Barry

Reporting today in the LA Times indicates that the U.S. has compromised with Pakistan's pleas for some drones of their own by adopting a joint-operation scheme for conducting the remote airstrikes targeted at militants operating in northwest Pakistan.

Under the new partnership, a separate fleet of U.S. drones operated by the Defense Department will be free for the first time to venture beyond the Afghan border under the direction of Pakistani military officials, who are working alongside American counterparts at a command center in Jalalabad, Afghanistan.

"This is about building trust," said a senior U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the program has not been publicly acknowledged. "This is about giving them capabilities they do not currently have to help them defeat this radical extreme element that is in their country."

Don't go thinking the CIA-run drone operations are shutting down though.  To the contrary:

Despite that arrangement, U.S. officials avoided offering Pakistan greater control over the CIA drones, in part out of concern about giving Pakistan direct access to a sensitive and secret intelligence operation. At times, U.S. intelligence officials have voiced suspicions that elements of the ISI, which has long-standing relationships with Taliban leaders, have warned targets in advance of U.S. strikes.

U.S. officials also cited a reluctance to take CIA drones away from their efforts to track and kill senior Al Qaeda figures, and stressed that the military drones would pursue a different set of targets, mainly Taliban-linked fighters.

Hmm, this looks a quid-pro-quo to me, something we've come to expect far as drones in Pakistan are concerned. Recall that under the previous arrangement the U.S. bombed, but denied and the Pakistanis criticized, but allowed.  I could be wrong, but based on the LA Times coverage, the U.S. now appears to be offering greater Pakistani control over COIN-focused drone operations in return for the continued freedom to conduct CT-focused drone missions targeting al-Qaeda.  It's a way for the administration to continue a policy, which the IC has identified as invaluable, whilst hopefully reducing some of the backlash associated with it.

The question therefore becomes whether this bargain is any more durable than the last.  There, I'm not so sure.  For all the negative complications cause by Pakistan's government complaining loudly about Predator drones, at its core, the issue is controversial for reasons having nothing to do with the government.  After all, if I were explaining to someone why drone strikes in Pakistan are a hotly contested issue, I would say its because they target a group most Pakistanis tend to discount, result in significant collateral damage and loss of civilian life, and fuel a sense of national injustice and violation which pushes people into the insurgency.  And only then would I add that Pakistan's government huffs and puffs about them.  Maybe.

If drone strikes are as valuable as Dennis Blair and Leon Panneta say they are, the Administration is going to have to start justifyng them against real counterarguments, and not just contenting itself with whatever approval Pakistan's government is willing to give.

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