A Reality-Based Iran Policy Posted by Patrick Barry

Former Cheney aide John Hannah has a thought-provoking piece in the Washington Post today, criticizing the Obama administration's strategy of engaging Iran as a means for halting their pursuit of nuclear weapons. Hannah briefly surveys the history of countries abandoning their nuclear ambitions, and observing that "[s]successful denuclearization of hostile states is most likely to occur as a result of regime change, coercive diplomacy or military action, not U.S. pledges of mutual respect."   What follows is really the core of Hannah's argument:

"As for Iran, the facts are that America's greatest success in setting back Tehran's nuclear program came not as the result of any negotiation but in response to intense diplomatic and military pressure. The 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate noted that in 2003 Iran halted its nuclear weapons design work (while continuing efforts to enrich uranium and develop ballistic missiles) because of increasing international pressure resulting from exposure of its covert nuclear program. Most observers noticed that Iran's decision coincided with the U.S. invasion of its neighbor Iraq and the toppling of Hussein's regime after three weeks of fighting -- something Iran's military had failed to achieve after eight years of war in the 1980s.

History's lesson for the Obama administration seems straightforward: Short of regime change or military attack, the method most likely to persuade an anti-American, terrorist-sponsoring state such as Iran to cease its nuclear weapons program is credibly threatening the regime's hold on power. While using intense diplomatic engagement with Tehran to make clear the historic opportunity that exists for reconciliation, the United States should simultaneously be working to confront the regime with a crippling combination of diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions and military coercion."

In 2001, such a strategy might have been credible. In 2009, not so much.  There is one major reason for discounting Hannah's call for harsh sanctions and military coercion: it fails to appreciate how much the ground has shifted out from under the U.S. over the last 8 years.  Take sanctions for instance.  The reality is that even if the Obama administration wanted to deploy tough sanctions against Iran tomorrow, it doesn't have the international support to do so.  Russia wouldn't go forward with a UN Security Council resolution right now, and the Chinese are perfectly happy to sit in Moscow's shadow and wait it out.  Indeed, part of the reason the Obama administration has emphasized 're-setting' U.S. - Russia relations is to gain its cooperation on Iran - something which had become infeasible during the Bush years.  Better to consider sanctions when there is a realistic shot at getting them than lose face by pursuing them prematurely.

An option made even more unrealistic by the Bush administration's actions is Hannah's call for military coercion. The ability of the U.S. to influence Iran through military means depends largely on the degree to which Iran perceives a U.S. threat as credible. It's highly ironic that Hannah should point to the invasion of Iraq to demonstrate the effectiveness of the military as a tool for deterring countries like Iran, as no policy has so limited the U.S. military's ability to pressure the Iranian regime nor so strengthened Iran's influence in the region as the invasion of Iraq.  Based on an an observation from Iran experts Suzanne Maloney and Ray Takeyh in a Brookings report late last year, not only has the U.S.' disastrous handling of the way meant the loss of Iraq as a “bulwark against Iranian influence," but since the U.S. became bogged down in Baghdad, “Tehran now has acquired the means to influence all of the region’s security dilemmas.”  The knowledge that Iran need only lift a finger to send thousands of Revolutionary Guards across Iraq's eastern border makes the threat of a U.S. strike at Natanz or Bushehr far less troubling to the regime.  

For these reasons, not to mention the fact that Bush administration basically had its shot at strong-arming Iran into ending its nuclear program and failed completely, I tend to think engagement is the way to go. 

Comments

[Don Bacon]

Hannah is a former hack from Cheney's office who is writing about "persuad[ing] Iran to cease its efforts to develop nuclear weapons" when there is no evidence of such a program. But putting hacks like Hannah on the WaPo op-ed page is par for the course.

But why are you repeating his lies, Patrick Barry? Has DA sunk to the WaPo level, without corrective comment?

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