The Value of Tehran-ology Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Matt Duss is obviously right when he writes that if you are looking to understand Iranian foreign policy, the most important person to observe is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  And when conservatives try to use some of Ahmadinejad's crazier statements to paint Iran as an existential threat , they are misrepresenting a much more complicated situation.  But I do think Duss underestimates the value of what he calls "Tehran-ology."  You do need to look beyond Khamenei to try and understand how Iran might react, even on foreign policy issues.

First, the Iranian political system is incredibly complex with multiple power centers.  Khamenei might have ultimate say but it's not all about him.  This USIP brief on the structure of the Iranian government gives a pretty good breakdown.  It explains:

While the constitution establishes four branches of government—the executive, the legislative, the judicial, and the office of the Faqih (Supreme Guide)—significant sources of power in the Islamic Republic lie outside the parameters of the constitution. Elections are semi-competitive and elected officials wield some measure of authority, but decision-making is consensual rather than unilateral and informal networks frequently supercede their formal counterparts, contributing to the opacity of the Iranian system.

In other words, the whole system is quite complex and involves multiple actors.  Tehran-ology is the only way to try and understand it.

In fact, there are examples where the President has forced the Supreme Leader's hand, even on issues of foreign policy.  When Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 his version of firebrand populism was very popular with the Iranian public.  In fact, it was so popular that the clerical establishment and Khamenei felt somewhat boxed in and began using more heated rhetoric and publicly adopting some of Ahmadinejad's positions on foreign policy as well as domestic policy.   As his popularity has declined so has his ability to influence Khameini and set the terms of the public discourse in Iran.

In another example, in the late 1990s the threat posed to Khamenei by the very popular reformist president Mohammad Khatami played a role in stifling the possibility of a break through between the United States and Iran.  Khatami's high profile outreach to the United States and the Western World, a policy that was quite popular inside Iran, caused Khamenei to stomp out the possibility of an opening. One of the factors in that decision was that it would be too much of a boon to Khatami's popularity.  A breakthrough would have been more likely, and is still more likely, if a close Khamenei ally is sitting in the presidency so that Khamenei and his allies could take full credit.

So, it's true that Khamenei is the most important player.  But his relationship to the president and the other key power brokers is important and will be a factor in decision making on foreign policy.   And as long as that is the case, Tehran-ology will be necessary.

Comments

[Gucci 2009 Handbags]

TrackBack URL for this entry

[Gucci Jewelry]

TrackBack URL for this entry

[Tiffany Ring]

Tiffany Ring

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap coach bags]

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

[m3i zero]

Matt Duss agrees with Maloney, calling IRPSA not only “ineffective” but “counterproductive” as well. It offers “Iran’s hardliners a powerful propaganda lifeline, and would likely facilitate greater regime consolidation right at the moment that the conservative consensus around Ahmadinejad is starting to crack up.

[wholesale Nipple Covers]

I have really enjoyed browsing your posts. Thanks for sharing this information. Someone on Yahoo Answers referred me here and I love it.

[replica handbags]

There is no black and white colors, such as gray and red like a timeless classic, and eventually replica handbagsbecome worse, Homme Dior, black A06 wake up call, the foreigners rouge, further improve the design of the initial sales to noble pure deoxyribose nucleic acid (DNA) Homme Dior, Dior men will bring clean ao in front of us the overall structure, surrounded by a black dial, simplereplica handbags and stylish design style spirit of Dior Homme.

[FFXIV Gil]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
FF14 Gil Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service! Final Fantasy XIV GIL
In the 2 years we are in this field , FFXIV GILbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(WWW,GM MMO,COM Sell FFXIV Gil)

[tiffany and co]

Measure out a good length of wire line or Links of London Letters, if the balls are larger, leather or cotton cord. Should be enough to wrap around your neck than 5 inches. If you are using wire, slide a bead embedded in one end and a part of clasp. Pass the cable through the securing of accounts, adjust, and then flatten the Links of London Sale with crimping pliers. Trim the tail of wire. String accounts. If you want a symmetrical pattern, start with the Links of London Pendants and add segments on each side. Add the second part of the hook or, if you are using a snap hook Should silver jewelry be plated? Silver coating can be done with rhodium, white gold, yellow gold and platinum, even. Another thing you should know when to buy silver Links of London online may no longer be done by hand or machine. Of course, pieces of handmade silver are priced much higher than machine-made counterparts because more value is placed on the works of human hands.