Islamic World's Views on Al Qaeda, Terrorism and the US Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

The PIPA folks have put out their latest public opinion survey on perceptions of terrorism and the U.S. in the Islamic world.  I attended a talk by Steve Kull, who directed the project, and found some interesting conclusions.

First, there is real ambivalence towards Al Qaeda and other groups that attack Americans in the Islamic World.  Respondents in Egypt, Pakistan and Indonesia were asked to rank their personal feelings about groups that attack Americans on a scale of 0-10 (0 being negative and 10 being positive).  In no country did a majority pick above 5 or below 5.   And in fact a significant majority chose numbers between 4-6 with the overall mean being 4.3.  This reflects a real ambivalence.  The issue seems to be that in all three countries the population overwhelmingly disapprove of Al Qaeda's tactics of attacking American civilians, who are in the United States or Muslim countries with less then 10% approving of attacks on civilians.   On the other hand, there is a lot of resentment towards U.S. policies and especially our military posture in the Middle East.  Al Qaeda's goal of getting all U.S. forces to withdraw from Islamic countries is overwhelmingly popular (87% in Egypt, 65% in Indonesia, 62% in Pakistan).  So basic deal is that neither Al Qaeda or the U.S. are all the popular in the Muslim World.

A more depressing finding is that an incredibly low 4% of Pakistanis believe that Al Qaeda was responsible for 9/11.  Our entire policy in that region is predicated on the threat of Al Qaeda's safe havens to the U.S. homeland and to other countries.  But if no Pakistanis believe that Al Qaeda actually presents a threat to the United States, then they aren't going to be at all sympathetic to predator strikes inside their territory which they will view as a violation of their national sovereignty for no good reason.  In fact, if you don't believe that Al Qaeda was responsible for 9/11 there can be no real sympathy for the American presence in the region.  You can also see how it becomes very hard for the Pakistani government to make counter-terrorism a real priority.  Of course, the Taliban insurgency in the tribal areas that has now dripped in to Pakistan proper is a different matter and though I have no data, I'm sure that threat is viewed seriously by more than 4% of the Pakistani public. 

Another depressing figure was the view of the American people.  26% of Egyptians, 33% of Indonesians, and 20% of Pakistanis had positive views of the American people.  The old mantra has always been that the population of the Muslim World does not resent the American public as much as it resents its governments policies.  I still think this is first an foremost about policy.  But it appears in this case that America's policies are dripping into the Muslim world's views of the American public as a whole.

Finally, its worth pointing out that all of this data was from before Obama's election.  Kull mentioned that he had done some polling since and there seemed to be some positive and hopeful bounces, but not enough to make a real dent in the overwhelmingly negative perceptions of the United States.  Expectations were still mixed and there was some skepticism about how much Obama could deliver. 

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