Rice's Claims About Iran Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

So, I've been on vacation for the past two weeks and have come back to see that Condoleezza Rice seems to be making some pretty bold statements about Iranian influence in Iraq.  Statements that really don't seem to be backed up by the facts. First, she claims that the U.S-Iraq Security Agreement was a major setback for the Iranians.

"They're in a much more difficult situation in terms of Iraq," Rice said. "They did everything they could to stop the strategic forces arrangement — they couldn't do it."

The reason the Iranians were so strongly opposed to the agreement was the fear of a permanent U.S. presence in Iraq that would threaten Iran's interests and act as a check on Iranian power.  But the agreement, rather then entrenching the U.S. in Iraq, evolved into a plan for the redeployment of American forces over three years.  The Iranians are not opposed to an American withdrawal and so they are not nearly as disturbed about the deal.  Even that plan couldn't get through Iraq's Parliament without the agreement on a national referendum, which could push the withdrawal date up even further (Matt Duss has more on this). 

Some analysts have also observed that with the election of Barack Obama, who has supported the redeployment of American forces out of Iraq, the Iranians are less worried about a permanent U.S. presence in and have thus become less opposed to the security agreement.

Then there is Rice's claim that the fighting in Basra last spring was a major loss for the Iranian Government.

On Iran, Rice said the clerical regime is finding it harder to operate inside next-door Iraq, and claimed that a turning point was last spring's rout of Iranian-backed forces in the southern city of Basra.

"The Iranians find themselves unable to operate as effectively in Iraq because we've been very aggressive against their agents," Rice said in her farewell interview with AP reporters and editors at the State Department.

In Basra, Rice emphasized, "they flat-out lost."

The problem with this claim is that it assumes that Iran had staked all of its influence in Iraq with the "special groups" fighting in Basra. The reality is much more complicated.  Various elements of the Iranian Government have strong ties with Maliki and specifically ISCI - his most important partners in the Iraqi Government.  In fact, a recent study by Brian Fishman and Joseph Felter of the Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point concluded that supporting these militias was a secondary strategy and that Iran's primary strategy for projecting influence in Iraq is through its political relationships (PDF):

Iran has a robust program to exert influence in Iraq in order to limit American power‐projection capability in the Middle East, ensure the Iraqi government does not pose a threat to Iran, and build a reliable platform for projecting influence further abroad. Iran has two primary modes of influence. First, and most importantly, it projects political influence by leveraging close historical relationships with several Shi’a organizations in Iraq: the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Badr organization, and the Dawah political party. Second, Iran uses the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Qods Force (QF) to provide aid in the form of paramilitary training, weapons, and equipment to various Iraqi militant groups, including Moqtada al‐Sadr’s Jaysh al‐Mahdi (JAM) and the Special Group Criminals (SGCs)...

The Iraqi government has cracked down on Iranian‐affiliated militias in the last six months. The Iraqi government’s effort does constrain Iran’s ability to employ violence inside Iraq, but it will not prevent Iran from exerting influence through supportive Iraqi politicians.

As Matt Duss wrote earlier today (And I also observed a ways back).  All one needs to do is compare Ahmadinejad's reception in Baghdad to that of President Bush to understand the relative influence of the U.S. and Iran inside Iraq.

 

Comments

[WOW GOLD]

Nice job! Thanks for your information.

------------------
I know some wow gold in wow, cheap wow gold farmed by man.

[Peace]

Rice's comments are nothing more than the current effort by the Bush administration to revise history. George Bush has stated to the press that he would not attack Iraq if he knew that there was no WMDs, but this has been contradicted by Ron Suskind and others. Now the administration is trying to make the case that the invasion of Iraq has been a success and that there is no Iranian influence in the government, even though the current Iraqi president used to live in Iran and is in connect with that country's Islamic government.

[cheap wow gold]

great post

[habbo credits]

Welcome to our game world, my friend asks me to buy some habbo gold . I do not know how to use the habbo coins ; my friend tells me how to use. I will thank for my friends bringing me in this world. I am not regret to buy buy habbo gold . We all love game, if you want to play it, please cheap habbo credits and join us. Please do not hesitate to have game.

[susanna]

wow gold website: wow goldwow power leveling

[secondlife money]

When you have second life linden, you will become strong. With cheap linden, you can upgrade and admire by others. You can use linden dollars to start the journey of the world. So, do not hesitate, let us move to buy lindens

[cheap habbo credits]

I will feel very anxious. Why I buy habbo gold , please it gives me such a warm place. At the moment, I have cheap habbo credits .

[Perfect World money]

You can change a lot Perfect World Silver for play games. Playing online games can make much Perfect World money.

[cheap 9Dragons gold]

9Dragons cater to the taste of young people. With cheap 9Dragons gold, you can get everything you want in this game. So I like to buy 9 Dragons gold.

[holesale Mulberry Handbags]

You can change a lot Perfect World Silver for play games

[replica Tiffany Bracelet]

9Dragons cater to the taste of young people. With cheap 9Dragons gold, you can get everything you want in this game. So I like to buy 9 Dragons gold

[luxury watches]

I am so with you,rolex watch
luxury watch

[bifocals]

we have a pair of bifocal glasses

[bifocals]

we have a pair of bifocal glasses

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap coach bags]

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

[sohbet odaları]

This is a very good site..

sonra bedava chat
burasıda var bedava sohbet

[watches]

If you like analog-digital Chanel Replica Watches, today's review might just make your day. This is the limited-edition A Lange & Sohne Replica, model #9052. Limited to 999 pieces, this seems to be their version of the Omega X-33. Let's start out with the specifications:44mm across, 50mm at the widest point, 15mm thick.PVD-finished stainless steel case and bracelet.Bracelet is three-link, solid, with solid end links, fliplock, and 23mm lugs.Domed sapphire crystal with inner anti-reflective coating.Inner dive bezel, operated by a screw-down crown at ten o'clock.Tritium tubes on hours, bezel, and hands.Reverse LCD display.In an interesting twist: it also has an electronic compass.Like the X-33, the caseback is a soundboard to increase the volume of the alarm.Also like the X-33, the crown is actually a push button; rotating it has no effect.45 month battery.ISA quartz movement.Water resistant to 100m (330ft).Three time zones, countdown timer, alarm, Bvlgari Replica Watches, and my favorite: seconds-only mode.Please read on for the full review.As you can see from the profile, the Blackbird has quite a different appearance than the Luminox Blackout. It's tapered, subtle and considerably more understated. Take a close look at the bezel: it has a tapered profile that I quite like. The Audemars Piguet Replica finish is flat (non-glossy) which combines with the reverse LCD on the dial for a very stealthy look. You can also see in this picture how the lugs curve down around your wrist for a good fit. I did notice that when on bad pavement on a bicycle, the lugs dug in a bit due to the weight of the Rado Replica Watches (175g), so I wouldn't recommend this as an exercise Tissot Replica Watches.The Blackbird has some fascinating design decisions that I don't pretend to understand. For example, the inner bezel is set via the screw-down crown at ten o'clock; well and good. However, on your left wrist, it's quite tricky to operate, requiring removal. It's nice, but you probably won't use it much given that the Tag Heuer Replica Watches has a digital Swiss Rolex ETA Replica and countdown timer, anyway. The bezel does have a tritium marker, though,Baume & Mercier Replica more useful at night.Another oddity is the primary crown: as noted above, it's actually a button only, and unlike the bezel crown, it's not screwdown. I would have expected either a conventional button or a threaded crown. And lastly, there's no analog seconds hand. Seconds are displayed by a dedicated ring of segments on the outer edge of the display. It works, but I do miss the analog hand.Here you can see the sounding board caseback design, very similar to the X-33.

[FFXIV Gil]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
FF14 Gil Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service! Final Fantasy Xiv Gil
In the 2 years we are in this field , FFXIV Gilbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(WWW,GM MMO,COM Sell FFXIV Gil)

[3g modem]

well! i like this interesting post,thank you your sharing!