Since When Is Iraqi Public Opinion Not a Condition? Posted by Patrick Barry

One thing that has been lost in the swirling political controversy over the contours of the U.S. - Iraq status of forces agreement has been Iraqi public opinion.  It's hardly part of the domestic political debate, which has focused largely on questions surrounding the durability of political and security gains, yet it has mattered hugely for setting the confines of the Iraqi debate over U.S. withdrawal.  Just yesterday, Admiral Mullen continued the trend of harping on security conditions, without paying corresponding attention to Iraqi opinion:

"We have 150,000 troops in Iraq right now. We have lots of bases. We have an awful lot of equipment that's there. And so we would have to look at all of that tied to, obviously, the conditions that are there, literally the security conditions," he said.

"Clearly, we'd want to be able to do it safely."

Critics of the deadline approach like to rail about the tenuousness of security gains and the absence of significant political progress, pointing to both as reasons for sticking to an "aspirational" plan. But when did the opinions of Iraqis not factor into both those dynamics?  What does Admiral Mullen think drove Maliki and the Iraqi cabinet to insist on dropping provisions like contractor immunity from the SOFA, or demand that U.S. forces be out of Iraqi cities by the summer of 2009, with a firm deadline for withdrawal of 2011?

The truth is that public opinion, as a driver of both politics and security in Iraq, is pretty obviously a condition on the ground.  Its rediculous for Mullen to insist on conditions so vociferously, whilst ignoring one of the most critical influences on the U.S. presence in Iraq.   

Comments

[marc]

Oh I don't know, I think it fits with what has been our de facto policy in Iraq. Bring freedom and democracy to the Iraqi people even if it means we have to kill them, displace them, destroy their meager personal possessions, turn their country into a complete waking nightmare, and humiliate every last damn one of them to do it!

[marc]

From the average Iraqi's point of view, what's not to like about that?

[Greg Sanders]

I wouldn't put it quite as harshly as marc, but since the beginning, even in some discussions among liberals, Iraq public opinion hasn't been a condition at all. On the liberal side, there's more attention to to what's "good for Iraqis" but that's not the same as what Iraqis want. Most egregious is when some dismiss Maliki's tougher stance on SOFA and the like as playing to domestic politics. So domestic politics in what's supposed to be a democracy doesn't matter?

Similarly, realist opponents to the war often just want to get out without reference to Iraqi opinion, although they do sometimes use it as a supporting argument.

I recently argued that we've done the same thing with Somalia. We're often willing to substitute what we consider our enlightened self-interest for what the population on the ground wants.

[Simmons]

I hate to be the cruel bitch, but it really doesn't matter what the Iraqi people think as long as it fits our interests. The only possible reason their feelings could matter to the U.S. is in how they respond (i.e. return of a strong insurgency).

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