Memo from CFR to McCain: Ahmadinejad Does Not Run Iran Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

I know I've made this point before, but it means something more when Foreign Affairs puts out an article essentially dedicated to disproving the idea that Ahmadinejad is the most powerful man in Iran.  Akbar Ganji, an Iranian journalist and dissident who spent six years imprisoned in Iran writes:

Of all of Iran's leaders since the country became the Islamic Republic in 1979, only Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolution's leader; Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran's president for much of the 1990s; and Khamenei have had defining influences. Despite all the attention he receives, Ahmadinejad does not even rank among Iran's top 100 leaders over the past 30 years. Khamenei supports Ahmadinejad immeasurably more than he did any of Ahmadinejad's predecessors, but Ahmadinejad is only as powerful as he is devoted to Khamenei and successful at advancing his aims. Khamenei's power is so great, in fact, that in 2004 the reformist Muhammad Khatami declared that the post of president, which he held at the time, had been reduced to a factotum. Blaming the country's main problems on Ahmadinejad not only overstates his influence; it inaccurately suggests that Iran's problems will go away when he does. More likely, especially regarding matters such as Iran's foreign policy, the situation will remain much the same as long as the structure of power that supports the supreme leader remains unchanged.

Not even in the top 100!  That seems like a pretty bold statement.  But even if it's just top 50, it would seem to put a damper on John McCain and Sarah Palin's attempts to continue to make talking to Iran all about Ahamadinejad.  McCain showed his confusion on this issue in the spring when confronted by Joe Klein.  But McCain and Palin continue to demagogue on Ahamadinejad and all the scary things he says as an excuse to not deal with Iran.

Here is McCain at the first debate making the case for not dealing with Iran:

Here is Ahmadinenene [mispronunciation], Ahmadinejad, who is, Ahmadinejad, who is now in New York, talking about the extermination of the State of Israel, of wiping Israel off the map, and we're going to sit down, without precondition, across the table, to legitimize and give a propaganda platform to a person that is espousing the extermination of the state of Israel, and therefore then giving them more credence in the world arena and therefore saying, they've probably been doing the right thing, because you will sit down across the table from them and that will legitimize their illegal behavior.

And here is Sarah Palin at the VP debate:

An armed, nuclear armed especially Iran is so extremely dangerous to consider. They cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons period. Israel is in jeopardy of course when we're dealing with Ahmadinejad as a leader of Iran. Iran claiming that Israel as he termed it, a stinking corpse, a country that should be wiped off the face of the earth. Now a leader like Ahmadinejad who is not sane or stable when he says things like that is not one whom we can allow to acquire nuclear energy, nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Il, the Castro brothers, others who are dangerous dictators are one that Barack Obama has said he would be willing to meet with without preconditions being met first.

In short, demagoguing about Ahmadinejad makes for great politics.  It's too bad he happens to be relatively irrelevant when it comes to dealing with Iran and its foreign policy.

Comments

[Mike]

As ForeignPolicy.com's article on the worst of each candidates ideas tells us, though, for the US president to meet with Amadinejad is one of the only two ways to reinvigorate his administration. It doesn't matter if he's a puppet for Khamenei. His administration still stands for all the same things whoever is the real puppet master. It is NOT in the best interest of the United States to breath new life into that administration. We need to continue to capitalize on the increasing disenchantment of the Iranians with their government.

[Kindo]

I wonder what the difererence is between Ahmadinejad having power, and being approved by the highest power in Iran? He would dnot be able to say what he says if Khameneyi did not approve or intend for him to say. He is not saying anything shocking in the eyes of an Iranian. Isreal , in Iranian opinion at least, has commited numerous acts of mass murder and is guilty of crimes against humanity. Not to mention the defiance of UN resoultions condeming Israel all vetoed down by the US. About 300 of them. These are the facts in the mind of most Iranians and so Ahmadinejad can talk about "Wiping Israel off the map" and its everyday business in Iran. Lately I feel the world is getting uglier but not only because Ahmadi is ugly. The problem is much wider spread.

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