Arguing on Georgia ≠ Nuclear Cooperation Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

The LA Times has an excellent breakdown of how the Georgia conflict has hurt our ability to work with the Russians on critical non-proliferation issues.

Most officials at the level of deputy assistant secretary and above have been told to avoid engagement with Russian counterparts except in multilateral settings like the United Nations, according to White House and State Department officials. That has effectively paralyzed the many political appointees assigned to foster existing bilateral relationships and develop new ones.

Some high-level meetings have been postponed indefinitely, including a trip to Russia by John Rood, the acting undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, to discuss various security issues and to negotiate a new pact to replace the existing Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START.

And the congressionally appointed Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism has been asked to not go on its upcoming fact-finding visit to Moscow.

Many U.S. officials said the freeze couldn't come at a worse time. They cite intelligence showing that the Caucasus region increasingly is becoming a crossroads for Islamic extremists, criminal mafias, black market traffickers and corrupt government officials.

What we have here is an issue of strategic priorities.  A major commission that is specifically tasked with focusing on preventing WMD terrorism can't do its job properly because of the Russia-Georgia conflict.  Keep in mind that WMD terrorism is the issue that both candidates in the 2004 Presidential debate argued was the greatest threat to the U.S.   I just can't see how the conflict with Georgia rises to the same level of national concern.  Especially considering that unsecured nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union are probably  the most likely way that a terrorist group might acquire WMD materials for some kind of attack.  This isn't to say that we shouldn't concern ourselves with Russian action in Georgia and shouldn't send some clear messages to the Russians about our displeasure (The Russian markets seem to be sending a pretty strong signal about their displeasure).  But does anyone really think that Tbilisi is worth junking our entire strategic dialogue with the Russians over nuclear non-proliferation? 

By the way.  This in a nutshell is why John McCain's proposed Russia policy makes very little sense.  You can't on the one hand can pick fights with the Russians: taking hardline positions on Georgia or trying to kick them out of the G8.  And then on the other hand claim that you will cooperate with the Russians on a broad swath of proliferation issues.   It just doesn't comport with reality.  But that is exactly what John McCain has claimed he will do.  Either he doesn't get it, or just like the Bush administration he is torn between Gates and the realists and Cheney and the hardliners.  It looks like Bush has gone with Cheney on this issue and judging from McCain's reaction to the conflict he has chosen the Cheney approach as well.

Comments

[Otto]

Once thing you missed out there, Georgia is the only way out for Asian Oil and Gas avoiding Russia, and if Russia will ever have its hands on Georgia then Russia will have another weapon against west, Its energy, which is so needed in the West and even know EU is blackmailed by Russia's Gazprom so you may have noted some points on your oppinion but do not forget being good and friendly with Russia does not mean that they will not help Iran or other anti USA countries. Russia becoming strong means USA is the enemy number one! So it is time to destroy Russia from all sides even Chine is against Russia in this case as Georgia is a vital road to Europe through Silk road.

[Dan Kervick]

Otto, how do you propose we "destroy Russia from all sides"?

[Peace]

To Otto

To try to destroy Russian would mean the end of civilization since the Russians have thousands of nukes.

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[c.l. ball]

OK until the last graf. You're saying Bush is wrong to cut off proliferation cooperation because of disagreement over Georgia. McCain is saying continue cooperation on matters of mutual concern (proliferation) while taking a hardline on other matters (Georgia). So you agree with McCain!

The cooperate where we can and block where we oppose was the exact strategy used during the Cold War. The US continued arms control w/ the USSR while funding the insurgency against it in Afghanistan; we got the INF treaty in this period, the first treaty that destroyed deployed weapons.

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