No Good Answers Posted by Michael Cohen

A couple of people have asked me why I haven't written anything on Russia/Georgia war: the bottom line is that I'm a bit out of my element here. I am not an expert on Georgia or Russia and, as is often the case, I'm constantly amazed by the assuredness by which some bloggers have made pronouncements about how the United States should respond; as if this crisis lends itself to a simple black and white analysis. Even if you buy the notion that the Georgians are the white hats and the Russians the black hats (a persuasive argument indeed) that barely illuminates the situation or offers a road map going forward.

For example, even if you view this war as Russian aggression, it's also a simple case of the Russians flexing their muscles in their near abroad. Let's call it the Russian version of the Monroe Doctrine: and maybe John McCain who has been prone to declaring that "we are all Georgians" should reflect on the fact that he was born in the Panama Canal Zone and wonder how that ever became a US territory. This is what great powers do; it's what the US did in Latin America for more than 150 years; and the US stands on weak ground in making a federal case out of this. Russia interests are regional, not global and ratcheting up the rhetoric of a new Cold War, as some have done, is not only misplaced, but it's downright counter-productive.

Second, what exactly can the US do to reverse Russian aggression. Should we take Max Boot's advice and send the Georgians Stinger and Javelin missiles and start a proxy war with the Russians. . . . By the way, did I mention that Max Boot is a top campaign advisor to John McCain. The last thing we need now is more flagwaving from neo-conservatives who get light-headed at the very idea of bombing other countries (and yes, I'm well aware there was a more vivid way for me to make this analogy). Part of the reason we are in this mess is because our President foolishly let his rhetoric get ahead of geopolitical reality by proposing the inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, which would, in effect, extend the US nuclear umbrella to Kiev and Tbilisi. One can only wonder why the Russians saw this as a direct provocation.

This brings me to my last point; where is the US national interest in Georgia? As important as we may think Georgian democracy is, shouldn't US national interests trump all else? We're fighting a war in Afghanistan, we're fighting a war in Iraq, we have global terrorists to worry about, not to mention a faltering economy and a worsening trade deficit. It seems to me that Georgia falls pretty low on the list of US priorities.  My heart goes out to the Georgians, but anyone who wants to argue that their political leadership didn't bring this on themselves is ignoring reality. I don't mean to sound heartless here, but there are limits to the extent to which the US should stick its neck out for faraway countries that engage in reckless behavior with authoritarian neighbors. We are doing the right thing by sending Condi to the region to try and negotiate and cease-fire; we are right to express our displeasure with Russia's actions and threaten punitive consequences, but beyond we have few good choices. We're not going to war over Georgia and by no approximation of US national interests should that even be on the table.

Now having said all of this, I would be remiss if I did not mention that Russia's behavior is incredibly dangerous. It's never a good thing when any country, particularly a member of the P-5, so brazenly violates the UN Charter and invades a neighbor. It's just that we have very few arrows in our quiver. Several folks have gotten in back and forth over how far the US should go in condemning the Russian behavior. But I think this misses the larger point; we are not going to turn back the Russians - what we need to focus on is how we stop this from happening again and ensure that US national interests are protected over the long-term.

Pushing for a resolution between Russian and Georgia that upholds Georgian sovereignty is a good first step. Making clear that similar Russian adventures in Ukraine will not be tolerated is another, coupled with a pledge not to extend NATO membership to Kiev in the near-term. Encouraging a new era of Moscow-Washington summit meetings as Fred Kaplan suggests would be another smart move to prevent these types of events from happening in the future.

Finally, my colleague Bill Hartung also offers a gimlet-eyed perspective:

We have to recognize that Russia is a nasty state that may well do things that Americans don't like in the coming period; but rather than pretending that we have the wherewithal to dictate their policies, we will need to build some sort of relationship that could head off the worst results of Russia's renewed ambitions along its borders.

Good advice at a time when more reassuring answers are hard to locate.

Comments

[mike]

long story short? mccain's an idiot likely to get us all killed.

[Mike M.]

Thanks for a deservedly complex take on this. I'd add... what if the Georgians aren't the white hats? South Ossettia doesn't want to be part of Georgia. Who are the Georgians to force them to remain part of that country? In that sense, Russia maybe did the right thing. But, if Russia did the right thing then Russia should be consistent and grant independence to Chechnya and so we're back to no easy answers.

[Jake]

"But I think this misses the larger point; we are not going to turn back the Russians - what we need to focus on is how we stop this from happening again and ensure that US national interests are protected over the long-term."

While this is not the nuclear Cold War of our history books, it is a diplomatic (read: cooling quickly) war between the West and Russia. Poland hastily agreed to a US Missile Defense base, which will in the short run amount to some US troops and weapons taking station in Poland facing Russia (not Iran, the claim for the base). This is a symbolic message to the Russians that says: If you step into another Caucus state, you're directly dealing with us now, and we will not have it.

I don't think you can just easily dismiss talk of a cold war as you do, however. All parties recognize that US-Russian relations are at their worst since the end of the historical Cold War. The US is furious with Russians for violating a fledgling democracy's sovereignty, and seizing oil and sea ports. We're also not too happy with Russians appearing to be complicit with Ossetians ethnically cleansing Georgians left stranded in the region. Russia is, conversely, enraged with America for agreeing to the missile defense deal with Poland, and for siding with Georgia and seemingly dismissing Russia's claims for legitimacy.

No, there is not an immediate nuclear threat from Russia. But, they have nuclear weapons. While our technology and conventional forces and even nuclear arsenal may outmatch theirs, if relations continue to sour and Russia continues to assert regional hegemony, 2 major things happen:

1. Instability in the region makes terrorism likely and eases access to the black market in WMDs and Russian weapons. It also increases the likelihood that mercenary forces are enlisted, which historically will turn against someone, at some point, and become a problem a la bin Laden.
2. Russia, alone in the world after it will be kicked out of the G8 and shunned by the international community, becomes desperate. They become prone to strategical error and make an inexcusable mistake. This defines a modern cold war to me. Regional conflicts go global due to miscalculation or hubris or sheer stupidity, or a desperate Russia acts desperately.

I agree with the bit about McCain though, and NYT has an excellent opinion article criticizing his long-standing disdain for Russia.

[Dan Kervick]

This is a symbolic message to the Russians that says: If you step into another Caucus state, you're directly dealing with us now, and we will not have it.

I don't read it that way. I thought it was interesting that Bush criticized the Russian incursion for being "disproportionate" and excessive. That kind of language - related to proportionality rather than basic justifiability - says to me that the administration is signaling that it recognizes the legitimacy of their defense of South Ossetia, but deplores action that extends beyond that purpose in Georgia. That's fairly measured.

The Polish decision strikes me as a way of re-establishing the markers in a fluid situation. It says to Russia that, in drawing the lines of the post-Cold War world, we differentiate among former east bloc countries like Poland on the one hand, and former parts of the Soviet Union in the Russian near abroad - like Georgia and the Ukraine - on the other. It is still somewhat provocative, perhaps, but its not a blanket "nyet" to Russian activity in the Caucuses.

Talk of a new Cold War seems overblown. Yes, there is a growth of some potentially dangerous, though traditional, great power conflict in the Caucuses. But we don't have Russian satellites all over Asia, Africa and Latin America, as was the case when the Soviet Union and the US were engaged in a global power game.

[Dan Kervick]

I think that for the good of everyone, we’re just going to have to get used to the notion of “spheres of influence” once again. We need to get back to a more realistic understanding that the US is not omnipotent, and needs to live in a world that is not unipolar, but has natural divisions and centers of power and influence. That doesn’t mean we should encourage a view of a world with rigid walls and fences. But we should accept that the world has some natural hedgerows and neighborhoods, and we upset the stability of the international order when we aggressively dig up and re-plant the hedges, try to expand our own neighborhood into every corner of the world, and view every lot and parcel as part of the American back yard. Georgia and the Ukraine should not be incorporated into an overly-ambitious sphere of US influence that extends all the way to the Russian border.

And one really bad habit that we need to shake is the excessive focus on political or governmental ideology in interpreting the behavior and motives of states. We have seen some of that thinking here at Democracy Arsenal, with fairly frequent claims that the issues in he Ukraine and Georgia are mainly about Russian opposition to “democracy”. As I see it, very little of what is going on now has anything to do with Russian views about democracy as such.

Yes, Russia no doubt has its preferences about the best way to run a domestic government, but I don’t think it really cares so much about what style of government is practiced by Georgia, Ukraine and other countries in its near abroad. What it cares about is that those countries, whatever form of government they practice, understand themselves to be part of the Russian military-economic orbit rather than the US military-economic orbit. It wants its immediate neighbors to be states that are either outright clients of Russia Inc., or at least very welcoming of and hospitable to the Russian economic interests inside their countries, and also amenable to a cooperative relationship with Russian security needs and interests, and that have a proper respect for Russian security anxieties.

What it doesn’t want are states that act as agents of America Inc.; that are determined to peel assets away from Russians and deliver them into the hands of Americans; that work closely with western intelligence agents; and that want to integrate themselves into a global American military and security system and might then make their territory available to American military advisors, bases and weapons. Russia’s beef with the new wave of color revolution leaders is not that those guys are “democrats”, but that they are eager and opportunistic agents of US power, who are helping to park that power on Russia’s doorstep.

We should be encouraging the states in the Russian near abroad to continue practicing democracy, but to seek friendlier relations with Russia. Our bargain with Russia should be that we want Russia to be tolerant of genuinely democratic political developments in the near abroad countries, but will disclaim our recent aggressive efforts to exploit those political changes to seek military-industrial expansion of America, Inc. into Russia’s backyard.

I think what I am trying to say is similar to a point Shadi has tried to make with respect to the Middle East. It is in our interest to see democratic government spread, because democratic government is, on average, better government and more peaceful government. But we actually damage the prospects for democracy to thrive to the extent that we view democracy mainly as a way to insert unwanted US clients, military assets and Trojan horses into places they are not wanted, and are deeply feared and resented. Resistance to US military, economic or cultural power and domination then turns into resistance to democratic government itself.

What is good for all of the countries in Russia’s neighborhood is that the United States seek the best possible relations with Russia. If there are few US-Russia tensions, then Georgia and the Ukraine won’t have that much to worry about in adhering to the Russian orbit. These are things we can work out with the Russians through frank diplomacy. But our policy since the supposed end of the Cold War has been one of aggressive opportunism, and an extension of Cold War thinking into the post Cold War era. We took the fall of the Soviet Union as an opportunity to crush Russian power completely while it was down, and to mount an aggressive expansion of America, Inc. into the Caucuses. US-Russia policy has been driven by an aggressive realist-imperial NATO expansion policy fueled by an ideology of democratic enlargement among liberal enablers of the aggressive gambit, as well as a policy of abetting the subversion of the Russian state and polity from within, even including the support for gangsterism in the 90s.

During the post-Cold War period, we flooded Russia with NGOs that, whatever their good wishes, are peopled with western-born, western-leaning, western-oriented folks who act as agents of western power and influence, whether that is their intention or not. Some of these people have even been in the employ of western intelligence agencies, the disclosure of which inevitably damages the cause for which they supposedly work We know this has already created a backlash.

This is a lot of intellectual and institutional inertia left over from the Cold War. While the US public has paid little attention, belligerently anti-Russian activists of the left and right have pushed outlandish commitments and power plays in our name. We shouldn’t have let things get so out of hand.

I sense there is also an interesting generational divide at work in the US that cuts across political party and affiliation. People like Zbigniew Brzezinski and George Soros, for example, are very anti-Russia, despite holding much more moderate views in many other areas of foreign policy. That’s not surprising, since they are expatriates from former Warsaw bloc countries, and represent a whole generation raised in the Cold War environment of anti-Soviet resistance and permanent hostility toward the Soviet Union. John McCain, of course, was tortured in a North Vietnamese prison by, I assume, KGB trained captors. He can’t be expected to get along well with ex-KGB men like Putin. I don’t really blame these folks for the emotions they feel, based on their life experiences, but they are now holding us back and tying us to the past with some self-destructive mental habits. I have some sense that Obama, whatever his political interpretation of recent events, does not possess this visceral, kneejerk anti-Russia attitudes of that older, passing generation.

The US has also unfortunately been very reactionary and atavistic in encouraging the growth of nationalism, ethnocentrism and cultural chauvinism since the end of the Cold War. This is destabilizing in itself, and rests international legal norms on deeply fuzzy and irresolvable qualitative cultural judgments about nations. Is South Ossetia part of an Ossetian “nation”, thus entitled to a right of self-determination? Or is it something less than that, and thus bound to accede to Georgian wishes? Who can say in a way that is definitive enough that we can hang authoritative and consensus-attracting legal judgments on the answer?

We should reaffirm that the bases of political organization in the modern era are states, not nations, and that states are frequently multinational and multiethnic associations forged from a common determination to live as part of a single governmental and administrative structure, and that such a determination trumps language, religion and ethnic heritage. We should practice a conservative respect for political borders, wherever they happen to exist, and avoid encouragements and entanglements with opportunistic warlords, ethnic kingpins and national or tribal leaders. Where ethnic or national strife within states exists, we should deplore separatism and nationalism, and put all of our efforts into holding states together, rather than allowing US power to be used to catalyze destructive chain reactions of state collapse along ethnic lines.

We should have followed this path two decades ago in Yugoslavia. The problem now is that we have undermined our credibility when we preach this message to South Ossetia, Russia and Georgia, after having done so much to encourage 19th century romantic nationalism in Yugoslavia and elsewhere.

[Jay C]

My heart goes out to the Georgians, but anyone who wants to argue that their political leadership didn't bring this on themselves is ignoring reality.

And anyone who DOES want to argue this point as a matter of public discourse will most likely find themselves on a quick one-way trip to marginality and political oblivion. Not because it is isn't right; but because the Administration and its enablers (most especially the McCain campaign) will (already have) demagogued the issue into a simple-minded narrative of the Noble Plucky Georgians Cruelly Crushed by the Evil Russian Bear - and will flog this fairy-tale to the bitter end.

If anyone else but the Russians had invaded and defeated Georgia, the issue would be a non-starter: but the combination of Cold War knee-jerking and an Administration desperate to cover up an Epic Fail will see to that ANY sort of objectivity will just become another casualty of the Russo-Georgian War.

[Anon]

"It's never a good thing when any country, particularly a member of the P-5, so brazenly violates the UN Charter and invades a neighbor"

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