Listening to the Iraqis Posted by Michael Cohen

I'm a bit late on this one, but I wanted to say a few words about Michael O'Hanlon, Stephen Biddle and Ken Pollack's latest piece in the NYT. This may come as a shock to DA readers, but they think we should stay in Iraq. Nothing about this is a surprise and if that was the crux of the piece I would hold my powder, but there is a notion in this article worth commenting on, because it seems to define the McCain approach to Iraq as well: none of these folks seem to be taking seriously what the Iraqis think about the US presence in their country.

As we all know, in recent weeks the Iraqi leadership has made clear that American troops must leave Iraq, preferably within the next two years. The most famous example of this phenomenon was of course Prime Minister Maliki's endorsement of Barack Obama's 16-month timetable for withdrawal from Iraq; which came on the heels of the White House acknowledgment of a 'time horizon' for withdrawal.

However, the fact that the Iraqis seem adamant about our departure is lost on these authors.

If the Iraqi government tells us to leave, we should go. But this would be a bad deal for both Iraqis and Americans.

Ok, fine that's their opinion. But what about the fact that ending the US occupation seems to have broad-based appeal in Iraq? O'Hanlon, Biddle and Pollack are incredibly dismissive of this notion, claiming that it is just Maliki playing politics - a position also taken by John McCain:

Why, then, does Prime Minister Maliki want an earlier withdrawal of United States combat forces? Part of the answer may lie in simple overconfidence: as Americans may recall from the spring of 2003, victory can easily be declared too soon. Another factor, however, surely lies in Iraqi domestic politics. With elections looming, Mr. Maliki and other members of the current government hope to demonstrate that they brought about the end of the occupation and the return to normality during their term.

Mr. Maliki in particular has sought to position himself as the symbol of Iraqi sovereignty, and surely hopes to supplant his young rival Moktada al-Sadr, the standard-bearer for Iraqi nationalism. What better way to do this than to champion a timetable for an American withdrawal, especially when the security forces that would replace the Americans are under his command and his Shiite faction enjoys the preponderance of power in Iraq?

It would be tragic, however, to allow American haste and Iraqi political opportunism to undermine a real chance for long-term stability in Iraq.

What is striking is that the writers seems to have little interest in the fact that Iraqis are becoming more forceful in their demands for departure, blithely dismissing it as just political bluster. Look, I haven't been to Iraq recently and I know that the calls for US troops to be out in no more than 2 years is not just bluster. O'Hanlon, Biddle and Pollack may think it's politics, but what if Maliki demands a timetable for withdrawal? They've already held up the SOFA negotiations on this point; what makes O'Hanlon and Pollack believe the Iraqis aren't serious? Not surprisingly they offer no road map and no ideas if calls in Iraq for withdrawal escalate.

What is so striking about this piece is that it seems to be based on a political reality where Iraqis play no role whatsoever - where their views are of little importance. But as Ilan argued here earlier, the assertiveness of Maliki is a fundamental element of effective counter-insurgency strategy and cannot easily be taken back.

After coming out so strongly and publicly for a gradual American withdrawal, the Maliki government has made it all but impossible to walk back. If it were to now sign an agreement that did not include some specific target dates for withdrawal or that tried to preserve the permanent South Korea-like presence that John McCain has long advocated, it would be seen by its own people as a weak American puppet instead of the legitimate government that it must become.

And at a time when we are trying to transition Iraq toward a functioning democracy how can O'Hanlon and Pollack so blithely dismiss the pronouncements of Iraqi leaders?

Of course these views are not only held by these authors. John McCain seems to feel the same way. But one increasingly gets the sense that what American politicians say about Iraq holds a lot less currency than it once did. All in all that is a good thing: Iraqis should be making their own decisions about the future of the country.

But it would be nice if the same Americans who pushed so aggressively for us to go to war in Iraq and stay, in the name of democracy, would come to that realization as well.

Comments

[Mike Stark]

Uhm... if Maliki's motivation for doing this is some form of Iraqi populist politics... uh... doesn't that mean that it isn't "just politics"? Doesn't that mean that the Iraqi's really, really, really want us to leave?

Does anyone know of a politician that takes a position not shared amongst the populace because he thinks it's good politics?

Criminy!!

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