Afghanistan in Peril Posted by Patrick Barry

Today’s story in the LA Times drives home that Afghanistan very much teeters on the brink.  The news is sobering.  Attacks in Afghanistan’s once stabile regions to the east have risen by over 40%, and U.S. fatalities have nearly doubled from where they were this time last year.  Admiral Mullen struck an alarming tone, commenting on Monday that “Violence is up this year by every single measure we look at,” and that  “the Taliban, by and large, have moved -- not unlike what happened in Iraq -- to the asymmetric, IED-style warfare." In short, the situation in Afghanistan is dire.

Sadly, Afghanistan’s plight is a direct result of the Bush Administration’s failure to elevate the strategic importance of the country.  Military commanders there are struggling to implement a better strategy, but they have been completely handicapped by the Bush Administration’s unwillingness to address any other imperative outside of Iraq:

“Last year's troop buildup in Iraq and the overall strain on U.S. ground forces have made it almost impossible to increase force levels in Afghanistan.”

You would think that with Iraq experiencing unprecedented success on the security front that the President would encourage some kind of reconsideration of priorities, but it is clear that Afghanistan is still held hostage by his strategic drift.  Such is the myopia that Pentagon strategists can’t even plan for the worst contingencies in Afghanistan because the command in Baghdad is in an indefinite holding pattern:

“Still, other officials said that Pentagon planners do not know when they would have additional troops for Afghanistan because the outgoing commander in Iraq, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, has not ordered further troop reductions.”

I give Admiral Mullen and the Pentagon credit - they’ve made unquestionable progress under the worst circumstances.  Their proposal to bring U.S. and NATO forces under one command is especially welcome, an idea that progressives at places like CAP and NSN have been pushing for months.

But ultimately, neither Admiral Mullen, nor even Secretary Gates can define success or failure in Afghanistan.  That is the job of the President.  He has to set the strategy. President Bush has had numerous chances to make Afghanistan a bigger priority.  He had every opportunity to deploy more troops to the region, improve strained relations with our NATO allies, or give clarity to an incoherent policy toward the terrorist safe haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Instead, he has let the situation devolve into the crisis we face today.  There is still time, in the waning days of his Presidency, to make the changes that Afghanistan so desperately needs, but today's news makes clear that the country cannot suffer his inattention any longer. 

Comments

[peace]

Ahmed Rashid, has written a great book about the grave conditions in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, that basically states that one of the main reasons that the United States has fialed in Afghanastan is that they did not use American and NATO forces effectively in that country. Rashid contends that American and NATO forces should have been used interdicting the drug trade rather than hunting the Taliban. Without the their main source of funding from the drug trade, the Taliban would lose political power. Instead the United States and NATO involved themselves in hunting insurgents which caused civilian casaulties and increased support for the Taliban.

[Don Bacon]

The Taliban wiped out opium production, but after almost seven years of fruitless US military occupation the opium trade is up to 8,000 tons (2007) and $100m for the Taliban, according to the UN. Destroying poppy crops would drive even more Afghan farmers to the Taliban, so the US Marines in Helmand are now protecting the poppy crop.

The US is stuck in another quagmire, with casualties up and popularity plummeting, and people are calling for more of the same? More troops in that graveyard for western armies, being called for by the chickenhawks, would simply mean more casualties. This is a new twist on Charlie Wilson's war.