The Burden Of Proof On Iraq Posted by David Shorr

I was on a conference call the other day focusing on Steven Simon's recent article on Iraq, and I was struck by two things. One, the arguments for withdrawing from Iraq are a slam dunk. Second, we seem to lose sight of how rock-solid our case actually is.

Simon is especially persuasive regarding the unavoidable trade-offs between a top-down approach to Iraq focused on bolstering the central government and a bottom-up approach, which is what the surge has been. In other words, you're not really building a unified Iraq if you go around paying off a lot of different local tribal leaders.

In the conference call discussion, there was a feeling that we advocates of withdrawal bear a burden of proof. We talked about how to present the strategic cost-benefit analysis. Certainly there is plenty of evidence to show massive cost and little if any benefit. But the point is that it's not even close. Our own Adam Blickstein nailed it the other day; there's nothing to show that a continued occuption will get us any closer to resolving the situation than it has in the last five years, a point that Steven Simon's analysis reinforces. As Adam says, the approach of doubling down with an open-ended presence is an emperor with no clothes.

Another key point from Simon is how much friends-of-Iraq coalition building is needed to bring more (and better coordinated) international pressure to bear. I agree that an outside-in strategy offers the best (only) hope. Wait, isn't that what Baker, Hamilton, et al were telling us 18 months ago!!?#%!?

Comments

[peace]

The United States will stay in Iraq as long the foreign policy establishment delude themselves into thinking that the surge is somehow working. An example of this delusion is a recent article in the New York Times which actually states that Maliki's government forces are succeding in Basra even though the authors offer no empirical evidence other than talking points written by the Iraqi government. Despite the fact a majority of the Anerican do not believe these press releases, they help shore up support within Congress in opposing any withdrawl plans. I personally believe that those like Steven Simon should get more air time on the MSM rather than the surge supporters.