Michael Schiffer: Boycotting games would not improve situation in Tibet Posted by The Editors

(Michael Schiffer is with the Stanley Foundation. This is a continuation of a series of posts discussing the appropriate U.S. response to the China-Tibet-Olympics controversy. You can read the first post by Frank Jannuzi here)

By Michael Schiffer

Now that the Olympic torch has reemerged from its secure undisclosed location and is making its way to Mount Everest – and then on to Beijing -- the question left behind by the torch's tumultuous day on the streets of San Francisco is whether or not a boycott of the Olympics by the President would be an effective way to improve the situation in Tibet and help bring about change in China.

The short answer is "no", or, at least, "not yet".

Its not because we shouldn't let China know precisely what we think about their violent crackdown and the repression of the Tibetan people. We should.  And its not because of questionable arguments about whether or not the Olympics should be politicized: Like it or not the Games have always had a political overlay.

The reason why a boycott does not make sense is simple: It is highly unlikely to provide effective leverage to get the Chinese to move on Tibet or Darfur, or, for that matter, anything else. In fact, moving on a boycott, now, simply deprives China of an incentive to change, strengthens the hand of the hardliners and locks China into bad behavior when our goal ought to be to provide them a way out and encouragement to do the right thing. Indeed, that is part of the reason why the Dalai Lama himself has acknowledged China's understandable pride in hosting the Olympics and called on Tibetans not to hinder the games.

So, what should we do?  First, we need to send clear, strong, and consistent public and private message to the Chinese not just criticizing their treatment of Tibet and Tibetans, but also offering a vision of where we'd like to see them go: releasing nonviolent protesters and respecting human rights, providing guarantees of religious and cultural freedoms for the Tibetan people, and entering into dialogue with the Dalai Lama or his representatives leading to meaningful autonomy for Tibet. We should make it clear that the President, as a "sportsman" (as I believe he has taken to calling himself) looks forward to attending the Games in the context of progress on these issues.  And, in private, we should also make clear that if things don't get better it may become politically impossible for the President to attend the Games.  Playing the boycott card is serious business, and getting the timing right and maximizing leverage, either way, is key.

We also need to recognize that change is going to come not because of our asking for it or demanding it, but because China and China's leadership recognize that it is in their own best interests to change. Navigating the domestic politics of Tibet is tricky business for the Chinese leadership, and while there may be those who are pushing for even more repressive measures, so too are there those who understand and appreciate that it is in China's own interests to get Tibet right.

The frustration of those who want to see immediate results is real and understandable. But not calling for a boycott now should not be mistaken for a formula for simply rolling over and giving up, or of placing Mammon before Buddha.   A moral US foreign policy towards China should not be one that scores debating points at the expense of progress, after all; rather it should be a pragmatic approach that recognizes where leverage is (and where it is not) and works steadily to advance human rights, civil society and political pluralism – none of which, sadly, are likely to happen overnight.

Right now the challenge is to take advantage of a moment when the world's attention is focused on Tibet and to see if we can use it to develop dialogue and genuine reconciliation between the Tibetans and the Chinese.  Humiliating China won't help that happen, just as neither will acting as if nothing is wrong.   But the real choice is not between a calling for a boycott or doing nothing.  It is between taking advantage of our leverage over the next few months and seeking to encourage China to do what is both right and in their interests or, with an empty and possibly counterproductive gesture, forfeiting it.

Comments

[Zathras]

Sympathetic though one must be to the Tibetans and their struggle to maintain their culture, it is prudent to guard against letting that sympathy lead us to embrace policy options that aren't really there.

Tibet is China's. That is not right, morally or legally, but it is the fact with which we have to deal. Neither the United States nor the other countries of the world have all that much leverage on the Chinese government in this matter.

We should also consider that going out of our way to avoid "humiliating" the Chinese over the Olympics may not, in fact, do more than postpone a period of rancor between China and the world's other countries, perhaps by no more than a few months. China's recent drive for economic development has been single-minded, all-consuming; it has left little room for the Chinese to worry about questions of national pride or resentment of other nations. This will change.

Every time the Chinese government's policy in Tibet, or Africa, or towards the environment, or towards currency, the rule of law or trade issues is criticized by other governments or reported on by the international press, will present that government with the temptation to rally public support for itself by blasting China's "enemies." The more economic problems arise in China, the greater that temptation will be, and for many years the Chinese people will believe their government every time it yields to the temptation to blame other countries for difficulties in their own, or for showing disrespect to China.

Personally, I would have preferred President Bush had not announced some time ago that he would attend the Olympics. Better he should have waited for the Chinese to ask him than face the choice now between appearing to accept Chinese conduct toward Darfur and Tibet on the one hand and making a wounding (and entirely symbolic) statement against Beijing on the other. In the longer view, though, this is ephemera. An era of quarrels between China and other countries lies ahead of us; our challenge is not to avoid it, but to manage it.

[smaug]

So you're not opposed to a presidential boycott of the opening ceremonies; you're in favor of conditioning that attendance on a demonstrable change in China's HR prior to the ceremonies. So if China does not improve by Aug. then the president should not go?

Most boycotts are symbolic, and China clearly values the symbolism of holding the Olympics. Other leaders are boycotting (Brown, Merkel) or openly threatening to do so (Sarkozy). Clearly, the prospect of a boycott did not prevent China from cracking down in the first place.

[Schezerade]

Encourage China to do the right thing? is the US doing the right thing in Iraq? what about human (especially women's) rights in Saudi Arabia? Guantamo Bay? My Lai? Napalm bombing? Ha ha ha ha! How can a country (or part of it) which went to war to keep slaves preach to a counrty with more than 5000 years of civilisation how it should behave? (And I am not from the people's Republic of China, by the way) Incidentally, Tibet was been part of China before 1959, probably before America was even discovered. A 15th or 16th century Chinese emperor first came up with the title 'Dalai Lama'.

[srina]

You can't solve the entire world's problem. No matter what had happen, Olympic game still has to go on. Why not let the people around the world go on happily and stop giving China pressure(leave them alone) The most important now is the world has to be co-operation to tackle terrorist and enviroment problem.

[dePaul Consiglio]

The World has already realized the importance of both Tibet's freedom of cultural expression and history.
However to continue to protest the Beijing Olympics of 2008 in such a most vocal way is counterproductive.

The Olympics belong to a City and not a Sovereign Nation. The People's Republic of China is not hosting the Olympics, The City of Beijing is, and as such should still be given the opportunity to host the Athletets and the World.

The World will be watching.

dePaul Consiglio

[dePaul Consiglio]

The World has already realized the importance of both Tibet's freedom of cultural expression and history.
However to continue to protest the Beijing Olympics of 2008 in such a most vocal way is counterproductive.

The Olympics belong to a City and not a Sovereign Nation. The People's Republic of China is not hosting the Olympics, The City of Beijing is, and as such should still be given the opportunity to host the Athletets and the World.

The World will be watching.

dePaul Consiglio

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