Bush's James Bond Scenario Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Farah Stockman at the Boston Globe wrote a great article yesterday in the Boston Globe about the President's attempt to tie "victory" in Iraq to the economy.  (It's not just excellent because she interviewed me).  So in the all news yesterday about Iraq she pointed out that this particular line from President Bush's speech just didn't get enough attention.

Out of such chaos in Iraq, the terrorist movement could emerge emboldened -- with new recruits, new resources, and an even greater determination to dominate the region and harm America. An emboldened al Qaeda with access to Iraq's oil resources could pursue its ambitions to acquire weapons of mass destruction to attack America and other free nations.

Seriously, this is some outlandish stuff.  First of all, the idea that Al Qaeda would ever come to control all of Iraq is absurd.  Even in the worst worst case scenarios all you'd have is an Al Qaeda safe haven in the Sunni part of the country.  Not AQI control.  Just an AQI safehaven, which is very different.  And even that seems far fetched since most of the Sunni powerbrokers have turned against AQI already.

On top of that all the oil is in the Kurdish North and Shi'a South.  Do you think that Shi'a and the Kurds would just invite Al Qaeda in to take their oil?  Not to mention the difficulty of actually getting oil out of the ground and transporting it.  Iraq has massive reserves but there's a difference between having reserves and actually having the resources and capital to get them out of the ground, and it's very difficult to do that in a country as dangerous and chaotic as Iraq.  That is why Iraq's oil production still has not exceeded prewar levels.

In fact, don't take my word for it.  Ask Neo-Conservative Michael Rubin who was interviewed for the same article and said "the idea of Al Qaeda taking over the oil is stretch."

I think they've been airing too many Tom Clancy political thrillers at the White House.  It seems to have gone to the President's head.

Comments

[Mike M.]

I think you've got the wrong metaphor, Ilan. Bush actually thinks that Al-Qaeda is a lot like Cobra from the old GI Joe cartoons. An evil terrorist organization bent on ruling the world. Seriously, you know he thinks Bin Laden walks around in a Cobra Commander hood shouting "You imbeciles!" every time his surrogates get captured by GI Joe.

[Don Bacon]

An emboldened al Qaeda with access to Iraq's oil resources could pursue its ambitions to acquire weapons of mass destruction to attack America and other free nations.

I think the Chimp may be on to something here. He's been like Santa Claus to OBL so far, bringing him the gifts of an Islamic Iraq and a US pull-out from Saudi Arabia, plus a get-out-of-Afghanistan-free card. Does he perhaps know something that we don't about future gifts?

The US is clearly, despite its fervent claims, unchallenged by a guy in a cave, but put this guy in a Sadr-like influential position in Iraq and now we've got Armageddon/Rapture material for sure. Don't count these guys out, they've performed miracles (aka disasters) before.

[Kevin]

OH Well Dana P says you are mistaken, you don't know what you are talking about and you should go and re-read the speaches of our dear Leader until you get it right....

[Idiots]

your both idiots

[stefan]

Some oil fields do seem to be in Sunni parts of Iraq. See for instance the Fallujah and Tikrit oil fields, or fields north of Baghdad.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/esar/esar_bigpic.htm

I've not been able to find production numbers for these oil fields.

[George Arndt]

A big part of the problem here is that many Americans don't understand the complexities of the Middle East. Bush talks of terrorists as a monolithic enemy like the Nazis or the Imperial Japanese. Besides Al Queda, who is our enemy?, Hezabolla, Hamas, The Shiite extremists or the Sunni extremists? If we leave Iraq, different extremist factions will simply turn on each other. Al Queda can no more take over Iraq than the Klan can take over the US.

[luxury watches]

I am so with you,rolex watch
luxury watchThe US is clearly, despite its fervent claims, unchallenged by a guy in a cave, but put this guy in a Sadr-like influential position in Iraq and now we've got Armageddon/Rapture material for sure. Don't count these guys out, they've performed miracles (aka disasters) before.

[piumini moncler]

abbastanza durevole per lo stile di vita di massima di un avventuriero professionista, e grazie a James Bond, sexy come guardare un uomo può ottenere, l'orologio Submariner