The Need to Prioritize Elections Posted by Shadi Hamid

I have to say that I get really troubled by the assertion that “elections alone don’t make a democracy.” Of course, it’s true as far as descriptive statements go. But the implications are troubling. I know this isn’t what Patrick was trying to say in his post, but too many others are saying it – that the U.S. has made a mistake by emphasizing elections, and, therefore, the U.S. should de-prioritize elections. 

The problem cited in Patrick’s post (which references a recent HRW report) is that “dictators around the globe are disguising their abusive, authoritarian regimes in democratic garb” by holding elections and winning them. Well, yes. The problem here though isn’t the emphasis on elections but, rather, that the U.S. has turned a blind eye to elections that were clearly rigged and manipulated, as has been the case in places like Egypt. If we’re going to talk a big game about elections, we have to take this to its logical conclusion and ensure the elections are free and fair. Of course, if we encourage elections and then accept their results even when they’re little more than glorified window-dressing, then this is not a good thing for anyone, and this where Patrick's point is very well taken.

With that said, instead of backing down on pressuring autocratic regimes to hold elections, perhaps we should exert additional pressure to ensure that said elections are serious events that meet the standard of “free and fair.”

To address another point which worries me when I hear it, Matt Yglesias writes that “the rule of law, in particular, is crucial. But while we have a lot of knowledge about, say, the rule of law we don’t have much know-how about instilling it elsewhere. So you see a lot of emphasis on elections.” Again, on the merits, this may be true and Matt's correct to point to this as a problem. However, the danger is that this type of logic will lead us to the sequentialist fallacy that before talking elections, we should focus on strengthening rule of law. Asking a dictator to strengthen rule of law is sort of like asking Christopher Hitchens to write an objective account of the history of Mormonism. In layman’s terms, rule of law reform necessitates diffusion of power and spreading responsibility across autonomous governmental institutions. It is unclear why a dictator would want to undermine his own power base and ability to subvert the very same institutions that we want him to strengthen. On a more conceptual level, the underlying premise of dictatorship is that the dictator is not subject to the rule of law.

The only way to address this is by making the ruler accountable to another powerful force in society – the electorate. In short, from this vantage point, rule of law should be seen as complementary to holding free and fair elections (i.e. it's very difficult to envision a scenario in the Middle East where you would have rule of law without some semblance of free and fair elections).

Lastly, it's important to note that rule of law reform, if approached in isolation, is difficult to assess and can take a very long time. Now, it may be easy for us to take a “patient,” “gradualist” approach to democracy promotion. We may be willing to wait. Presumably, however, this view may not be as attractive to the citizens of dictatorships who have to endure repression on a daily basis. I imagine their patience is wearing thin. I’m not sure if it’s really fair to tell them “well, before we let you guys have elections and vote for the wrong party, you have to, um, have rule of law first.”

Comments

[Mike M.]

The rule of law crowd, also the security first crowd like Amitai Etzioni are simply dishonest about what they want. They only want democracies that elect governments that are acceptable to the US. Period. What's great is that they know we can isolate and bully elected governments like Hugo Chavez's in Venezuela until they have to become undemocratic just to survive. Then we can say "See, we knew all along..." and that winds up being that.

[Mike M.]

One thing you really get right is... why would a dictator allow for the development of civic institutions and the like that would, by definition, undermine their authority? Power sharing, as you say, is one of the reasons you want to have a rule of law in the first place since you can no longer just execute people who have competing interests with you.

[Tim]

I think the argument about sequentialists is a bit of a straw-man here. I think the key point about democracy promotion is that our current policy is that we try to get free and fair elections, with political parties and whatnot, but once that election happens we basically run out of ideas about how to help. Getting rid of dictatorships and establishing at least the basic institution of democracy - voting - is the first goal (assuming there is no mass killing going on, in which case I think security could be placed ahead of elections). But once that first criteria is met, and a democratically elected government is in place, we need to think about what we can do next to help.

Venezuela is a good example about that gray area where out policy falls flat. Chavez is an elected leader, and a seemingly popular one. So far, it appears that he abides by election results, but it is also apparent that Venezuelan democracy is a bit shaky. The political scene seems based heavily on personality and largess (similar to how Iraqi politics is currently based on ethnic/tribal/religious divisions) and real politician competition is lacking. There is a lot we could do to help Venezuela (and other countries in similar shape, like Ukraine) develop those other aspects of modern liberal democracies, like rule of law, without undermining our strategic position or our moral standing in the world.

I suppose my point is simply that getting an election can't be our only priority for democracy promotion, when there is so much more we could do. Soft-power, used to promote those important civic institutions necessary for the long-term success of democracy, is too lacking from our current policy.

To me, it looks like our current policy is a weird hybrid of idealist moralizing, and cynical realist undermining. Bush pushes for democracy in countries with unfriendly regimes, but not in friendly regimes; so he has no real credibility. He is willing to invade to topple one dictator, but he seemed to think that democracy going to miraculously appear once the dictator was gone. It's not a good policy, but unfortunately not enough time has been spent by our leading politicians-in-opposition explaining how the how Bush foreign policy is failing. They spend too much time on individual points of failure to really describe the systemic problems.

OTOH, you guys here at Democracyarsenal have done a good job laying the groundwork for a better approach to foreign policy that I hope a future Democrat will build upon.

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