Pesky Meddlers Posted by Patrick Barry

Judging from this Reuters story, it looks as if Iran is back to meddling in internal Iraqi affairs by ramping up their support for destabilizing proxy groups. According to David Satterfield, while overall violence has dissipated in Iraq, attacks from EFP’s and mortar attacks near Basra Air station, both ‘bellwethers’ for Iranian involvement, have risen over the last few months. This news is especially unfortunate, given that for a short while, it looked as if Iran had adopted a more constructive disposition.  Tehran, spurred by such factors as our continued support for various Iraqi Sunni groups, has found new incentive for asserting themselves in Iraq.

What tends to get lost in any discussion of Iran’s conniving is that every country in the region is causing trouble in Iraq. Anyone who reads the Sinjar records will come away feeling just the tiniest bit skeptical about the benevolence of Saudi or Syrian intentions.  The unfortunate truth is that at present, any action the United States takes in Iraq is likely going to upset at least one of neighboring countries. Focus too much on building the capacity of the Shi’a dominated central authority in Baghdad and you risk angering the Sunni establishments in places like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  Throw in your lot with helpful Sunni militias in Anbar or Mosul and it won’t be long before the Shi’a in Tehran start getting restless.

I hate to belabor a point that has been made numerous times on this board, but this problem has a solution: Regional Diplomacy.  Unless we sit down with all of Iraq’s neighbors to work out an agreement over the country’s future status, governments in Iran or Syria or Yemen will continue to find reasons for playing the spoiler’s role and every decision we make will have to be weighed against potentially damaging regional repercussions.  Only a diplomatic initiative, begun with the expressed purpose of convincing Iraq’s neighbors to place convergent and stabilizing pressures on the country, will offer the United States a path out of this trap.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Oh please. There is no actual evidence in the Reuters report for any of the Satterfield assertions, only a report to the effect that he did make these assertions. we have no way of knowing whether they are true.

Perhaps we should consider the possibility that the intermittent reports of mysteriously waxing and waning Iranian involvement in Iraq are more tied to US homefront public communications efforts than actual conditions in Iraq. For example, the Reuters story notes:

The United States and Iraq hope to begin negotiations later this month on a bilateral agreement that would provide a legal framework for the continued presence of U.S. forces, who now operate under a U.S. mandate that expires in December.

And what do you know? Now that the administration needs to convince Americans of the great need for a bilateral agreement on a "continued presence" in Iraq, and also needs to convince Americans that engineering this continued presence isn't a way of tying the hands of the next administration, but is instead designed "to allow that new administration options and time to reflect upon both our interests in Iraq, broader regional and international interests, and how that new administration would wish to pursue them," they have suddenly discovered some more malevolent Iranian meddling. Well, I'm not buying it, or anything else that comes out of this administration of chronic liars.

I also object to the use of tendentious terminology like "meddling", "destabilizing proxy groups" and "causing trouble". Iran, as you point out, has interests in Iraq just like every other neighboring country. And on the whole, Iran's involvement with Iraq has been aimed at bolstering and securing the elected, Shia-led government of the country. I would argue that these are in fact stabilizing moves. The Iranians have attempted to develop constructive diplomatic and economic ties with their Iraqi neighbors, but have seen the US run all kinds of interference: arresting Iranian diplomats and emissaries and trying to prevent Iranian economic investment in the country. And then, of course, the US in effect tilted away from the government it helped bring to power through elections, and has thrown monetary and military support in the direction of the insurgents of the Sunni leadership (our enemies, remember?) who in effect represent the re-organized remnants of Saddam's intelligence agencies and military forces, and who are bent over the long term on toppling the elected government.

So who, in fact, are the destabilizing meddlers here?

[Dan Kervick]

Despite my sarcastic comments about the first two paragraphs of your post, Patrick, I do want to acknowledge that your third paragraph is in my view very much on target. I would only object that the main point of the various involvements of Iraq's neighbors in Iraq, as I see it, is not to play a "spoiler's role", but to advance their easily understandable and legitimate interests in the eventual political disposition of Iraq.

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[safdsf]

Smart Phone Parts Leading smart phone parts, PDA Parts, data capture parts, Cell Phone Parts, mobile phone parts, iPhone Parts, LCD screen and digitizer supplier offers experienced,Data Capture Parts, timely, cost competitive, GlobalDirectParts,worldwide logistics support. We are the reliable parts supplier that delivers competitive price & quality assurance,Global Direct Parts, on time.