The Second World Posted by Michael Cohen

Parag Khanna, my colleague from the New America Foundation, has a fascinating piece in the Sunday New York Times Magazine about America's shrinking hegemony and the rise of what he calls "second world countries."

My friend David Rieff have argued ad nauseum both in public and private over the issue of American hegemony and I've generally come down on the side of seeing America continue its role as the dominant global actor.

But whether one agrees or disagrees, Parag makes a pretty strong case that the direction of these second world countries may go a long way toward determining the destiny of the United States and in fact whether America remains THE global power:

There are plenty of statistics that will still tell the story of America's global dominance: our military spending, our share of the global economy and the like. But there are statistics, and there are trends. To really understand how quickly American power is in decline around the world, I've spent the past two years traveling in some 40 countries in the five most strategic regions of the planet -- the countries of the second world. They are not in the first-world core of the global economy, nor in its third-world periphery. Lying alongside and between the Big Three, second-world countries are the swing states that will determine which of the superpowers has the upper hand for the next generation of geopolitics. From Venezuela to Vietnam and Morocco to Malaysia, the new reality of global affairs is that there is not one way to win allies and influence countries but three: America's coalition (as in "coalition of the willing"), Europe's consensus and China's consultative styles. The geopolitical marketplace will decide which will lead the 21st century.

Second-world countries are distinguished from the third world by their potential: the likelihood that they will capitalize on a valuable commodity, a charismatic leader or a generous patron. Each and every second-world country matters in its own right, for its economic, strategic or diplomatic weight, and its decision to tilt toward the United States, the E.U. or China has a strong influence on what others in its region decide to do. Will an American nuclear deal with India push Pakistan even deeper into military dependence on China? Will the next set of Arab monarchs lean East or West? The second world will shape the world's balance of power as much as the superpowers themselves will.

Anyway, check the article out: it's a great read.

Comments

[Moin Ansari]

Nice site. Interesting thoughts. You may enjoy a rebuttal on www.RupeeNews.com

The last time the political tectonic plates collided, the eartquake was felt all over South Asia, Eastern Europe and in Latin America. After the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan the USSR imploded under the drunk leadership of Mr. Yeltsin, and was reduced to the status of Latvia and Estonia. It was ignored and humiliated. A resurgent Russia can be analogized to a resurgent Germany after Versailles.

In the past two decades, America was the undisputed leader of the military power. Parag Khanna is one of those that feel the USA squandered away that leadership and missed a golden opportunity to lead by example and with moral authority.

The new powers that have emerged in the past two decades are China and Europe. Both have the clout and the ware-withal to make things happen. According to Parag and other columnists, India wasted the opportunity to make peace with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. He does not include any other country. —”not India, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite.”

The cracks are showing with 89 insurgencies raging
Is India a failed state?

This is not the first time that India has missed the boat. During the 60s India chose the wrong sides, and was ignored by the planet. Now the fanfare and pomp and ceremony during republic day cannot hide the truth.

The superpowers of antiquity

Was Samuel Huntington right and the PNAC wrong? See several articles on this site.

If Turkey is included in the EU, EU would be linked to China. If the EU rejects Turkey, then the ECO organization led by Pakistan and Turkey would link to China and Europe.
Pakistani Cheese for Western “whine”. Invoices for services rendered.

[Mike M.]

Great post, Michael. Thanks for letting us know about the article. Hadn't heard the term "second world" in a long time.

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The new powers that have emerged in the past two decades are China and Europe. Both have the clout and the ware-withal to make things happen. According to Parag and other columnists, India wasted the opportunity to make peace with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. He does not include any other country. —”not India, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite.”