The President Knows Posted by Michael Cohen

Sometimes you read a story about this President that is so insanely crazy it practically takes your breath away. Michael Hirsh's reporting on what our President told Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert about the recent Iran NIE is just such a story:

In private conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week, the president all but disowned the document, said a senior administration official who accompanied Bush on his six-nation trip to the Mideast. "He told the Israelis that he can't control what the intelligence community says, but that [the NIE's] conclusions don't reflect his own views" about Iran's nuclear-weapons program, said the official, who would discuss intelligence matters only on the condition of anonymity.

"His own views?" One can only wonder what informed the President's opinion, but you really have to wonder what's the point of having a vast intelligence system if the President is simply going to ignore their conclusions when they don't conform to "his own views." This is a man who boasts that he doesn't read the paper, or watch the news and gets most of his information from the sycophants around him. Moreover, someone should probably remind the President why "he can't control what the intelligence community says." (See: Iraq War)

As Fred Kaplan points out, these words pretty much undermine any credibility the United States has on intelligence matters:

Let's say that six months from now Bush publicizes an NIE concluding that Iran has resumed its nuclear-weapons program or that, say, North Korea is reprocessing more plutonium. Given that he pooh-poohed an NIE that rubbed against his own views, why should anyone take him seriously for embracing an NIE that confirms them?

But imagine what this does to an already beaten down intelligence community. On the one hand, when the country gets sucked into a disastrous five-year war it's your fault (not the Administration that launched the war on cherry-picked intelligence and failed to plan for a post-war occupation). When you assert in 2004 that things are going from bad to worse in Iraq, the President derides it as "just guessing" even though you ended up being correct. Finally, when you produce a comprehensive report that differs with the President's "own views" you are derided once again to world leaders.

But most disastrously of all, by telling this to the Israeli Prime Minister do you think the President might be giving a green light for Israel to take matters into its own hands? Sure enough, Hirsh indicates that his words may have had this exact effect:

Bush's behind-the-scenes assurances may help to quiet a rising chorus of voices inside Israel's defense community that are calling for unilateral military action against Iran. Olmert, asked by NEWSWEEK after Bush's departure on Friday whether he felt reassured, replied: "I am very happy."

Do you remember when US President used to do everything in their power to prevent regional conflicts in the Middle East? Honestly, January 2009 cannot come soon enough.

UPDATE: Some folks have raised the fact that the quote above from Michael Hirsh's piece could lead one to a different conclusion, namely that Bush's admonition on the NIE may in fact cause the Israelis to back away from a possible unilateral attack on Iran, because they believe the US will attack instead. In hindsight, the quote could be read that way, but it's hard for me to believe that Israeli would be so naive to believe that. Indeed an ABC news story quotes Olmert telling a closed door committee meeting the following:

"Israel clearly will not reconcile itself to a nuclear Iran," the meeting participant quoted Olmert as telling the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. "All options that prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities are legitimate within the context of how to grapple with this matter."

Obviously it's open to interpretation, but if I were the Israelis I would take Bush's words as a tacit green light, which is how I imagine they were intended.

Comments

[Zathras]

Interesting. I had the impression that the American intelligence community is rather less "beaten down" than it was a couple of years ago, and thought Hirsh's story confirmed this.

Honestly, a "senior administration official" speaking on condition of anonymity briefs the press on private discussions in which the President is said to disagree, for no particular reason, with the estimate of numerous American intelligence agencies...well, this background briefing not only makes Bush looks feckless and out of touch, but could easily have been seen to have that effect beforehand. From which one might conclude that the President's disregard of the NIE is not universally shared even within his own entourage, a notable development in an administration that has placed such emphasis on message discipline.

Other interpretations are possible, of course. Some "senior official" might just have been in the room when Bush started running down the NIE to an Israeli politician, and rushed to brief the Post knowing that the story would leak within hours anyway. Still, even White Houses less image-conscious than this one don't ordinarily have senior officials leak stories that make a President look bad.

[Tim]

Good post; but let me also suggest that this could be more than the President just being a jerk, it could be a move calculated to get his agenda back on course.

He might have deliberately leaked that he doesn't really believe the NIE, which hurts the intelligence community (which he and a lot of other conservatives think is full of people who oppose his agenda), it also provides fodder for the specific Israelis and Americans who want conflict with Iran and think the NIE was wrong, and also maintains the high tensions between Iran and the US, which might have otherwise eased in the aftermath of the NIE.

Now I have trouble imagining the President as a shrewd calculator, but it seems like this leaked story is actually a very straightforward way for the President to push his original narrative (the US versus Iran over nukes and terrorism) back into the center of discussion.

[Mike M.]

Thanks for telling us about this. I'm kind of speechless, which you know is unusual for me.

[Dan Kervick]

Michael, you say:

But most disastrously of all, by telling this to the Israeli Prime Minister do you think the President might be giving a green light for Israel to take matters into its own hands? Sure enough, Hirsh indicates that his words may have had this exact effect:

and cite this passage:

Bush's behind-the-scenes assurances may help to quiet a rising chorus of voices inside Israel's defense community that are calling for unilateral military action against Iran. Olmert, asked by NEWSWEEK after Bush's departure on Friday whether he felt reassured, replied: "I am very happy."

I read the passage differently. If whatever assurances Bush gave might be expected "quiet down" the Israeli voices calling for unilateral action, then the implication would appear to be that the Israelis now expect the Americans to act.

[Frank Wilhoit]

Zathras,

The leak does not make Mr. Bush look bad TO HIS PEOPLE. One man's feckless is another man's visionary.

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[r4]

I would like to say if Bush doesn't believe the NIE but has his own views, this is really scary. Bush will also be leading the US based on his own opinion and not what the majority of the American people wants. This is a dictator in the making!

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