Role of Iran in Iraq and the Region Posted by Shawn Brimley

Happy New Year all. Marc Lynch has a great piece on Iran in the Christian Science Monitor today which argues that the United States is misreading the nature of Arab Gulf states perceptions of the rising regional power.

The Gulf has moved away from American arguments for isolating Iran. American policymakers need to do the same.

The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are accommodating themselves to Iran's growing weight in the region's politics.

... Even in Iraq, fears of a Saudi-Iranian proxy war have given way to hints of an emerging modus vivendi. Gulf regimes remain hostile to the pro-Iranian Iraqi government. But instead of trying to replace its Shiite leader, Nouri al-Maliki, they now seem satisfied that the rise of the Sunni "Awakenings" – US-backed neighborhood councils that have begun fighting Al Qaeda – will check Iranian ambitions. Saudi and Iranian clients in Iraq even seem to be carving out zones of influence, as suggested by recent talks between the Sunni Anbar Salvation Council and the Shiite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.

According to Alissa Rubin of the New York Times, U.S. military leaders are seeing Iran shift their posture toward a more cautious stance.

Iran appears to have responded to demands that it halt the flow of weapons and financial support to Iraqi insurgents, the American military has said, reducing the number of attacks on American soldiers and Iraqi civilians.

Finally, on the growing links between Iraq and Iran see this great piece on the growing role of Iran in helping to revitalize Najaf.

My impression is that while the regional dynamics may be shifting in fundamental ways, the situation in Iraq is indicative of players engaging principally in a holding pattern while the U.S. military continues with the un-surge.   

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

This si all excellent news.

[Simmons]

I don't know how smart the GCC is by assuming the 'Sunni Awakening' will last. I don't think it will.