More on the Electability Question
Posted by Shadi Hamid
Ezra Klein, Kevin Drum, and others have been having an interesting back-and-forth on the electabiilty question. Ezra writes:
Via Kevin Drum comes yet more evidence that there's no open-and-shut case for Obama's electability. "The detailed results of the latest LA Times poll have now been posted," he writes, "and they show that Hillary is indeed the tougher candidate: she does at least as well as Obama against every leading Republican, and in a hypothetical matchup with McCain she wins by 4 points while Obama loses by a point."
Of course, other polls show other things. The point, though, is that the evidence folks are using to prove Obama's electability is weak indeed. Favorability ratings have a very tenuous relationship to votes. Obama, with a +27 favorable rating, seems to do little better than Clinton, with a +4 favorable rating, in match-up polls, and often does somewhat worse. Liking someone is not the same as voting for them.
Obama's favorability ratings may not translate into winning hypothetical matchups now, but that's not really the point. Higher favorability ratings mean that more people would be likely to consider voting for Obama in the future. In other words, if Obama wins the nomination and has a chance to make his case to the American people, a significantly higher number of voters will be at least open to his pitch. On other other hand, Hillary's ceiling of support appears to be somewhat lower.
Ezra says that "liking someone is not the same as voting for them." Well, no it isn't. But if you like someone, you will, all other things being equal, be more likely to vote for them.
Democrats worried about electability for over a year before the 2004 convention, and wound up with John Kerry. They'd be better off focusing on which candidate they like, and think voters like. The fact is, Democrats are going into this election with a President from the other party whose approval ratings have been hovering around 30% for almost two years.
That's a huge advantage, but it won't manifest itself in Democratic primar