Economy, Energy, Environment...
Posted by Heather Hurlburt
As we say goodbye, at least for now, to an all-Iraq all the time media environment and replace it with all-economy all the time, I get to go back to one of my pet hobbyhorses: how little we know about how voters understand the nexus among energy policy, national security, the economy and global warming.
Or, to put it another way: wonks think that this is one interconnected ball of issues, and that talking about one gets you points on another.
The latest Pew poll suggests that the public thinks otherwise. Thanks to Matt Yglesias for posting the relevant chart, even though his post is about something else.
67 percent of Democrats say "protecting the environment" is a top priority, 59 percent say "dealing with energy problems" and 47 percent say "dealing with global warming."
For Republicans, those numbers are 39, 53 and 12, respectively.
Strengthening the nation's economy, in case you wondered, gets 76 percent from both.
There's an interesting problem/warning lurking there on the global warming piece. Have people decided it's hopeless? Or is it not that important? Or do they include it in environment? Or in energy??
My guess is that in part due to the incessant propaganda from global warming denialists, there are just a lot of Americans who simply don't believe in global warming, or don't believe it is a serious problem. And yet it is entirely possible that many of these same people do believe that there are a host of other environmental problems requiring action. A notheasterner, for example, might be a global warming skeptic and yet be very eager to do something to about acid rain, deforestation, wilderness conservation, wetlands protection or wildlife protection.
And apart from the issue of global warming skepticism, global warming is after all one environmental problem. Wouldn't we expect to see similar poll results if the general category of protecting the environment were compared with any other specific issue such as soil erosion or water conservation?
Posted by: Dan Kervick | January 25, 2008 at 12:10 PM
People care about the environment, but they vote on the economy.
The state of the economy affects their lives directly, in ways they can measure day by day. Changes in the environment mostly don't. If you've living next to an oil spill or a toxic waste dump your reasoning is likely very different, but most people aren't in this situation.
By this time most Americans have an intellectual understanding that climate change is, on some level, a problem. The only manifestation of climate change they have actually seen in their own lives, though, is somewhat warmer winters and some unusual weather at other times of the year. This is not a big mystery; people who study climate change for a living have good reason to view it with great alarm, but most people don't study climate change for a living and need a great deal of persuasion before they believe that very expensive policy measures -- which may affect climate change, or may not -- are worth taking to try and slow climate change down.
Actually, most politicians understand this perfectly well, which is why they generally talk about climate change in general terms and stop well short of advocating policy changes that can easily be seen to cost consumers a lot of money or force them to change the way they live. Sen. McCain and some of the Democratic Presidential candidates, for example, are on record as advocating a "cap-and-trade" system for greenhouse gases -- a very questionable idea on the merits, mostly because we don't know nearly enough to make such a system do what we want it to do, but ideal as a way to address the current state of public concern with climate change.
Why? Because cap-and-trade does not say to voters: "you need to use a lot less energy, and so you will pay a lot more for the energy you do use." That message would make any Presidential candidate delivering it a lot less popular than President Bush is now. We therefore get instead candidates checking the climate change box with nebulous proposals that express concern unburdened with any ideas that have the potential to be seriously unpopular -- as, for example, higher gas taxes would be.
That is where the public is right now with respect to climate change. American voters are concerned, but not concerned enough to change their lives in an effort to do something about it.
Posted by: Zathras | January 25, 2008 at 01:13 PM
Sorry, I forgot to close an italics tab.
Hopefully this fixed it.
Posted by: Dan Kervick | January 25, 2008 at 02:02 PM
The problem is that people have been indoctrinated with the notion that you have to make economic sacrifices in order to make environmental progress. The two have been presented as opposed to one another for so many years that people assume it's all about prioritizing rather than harmonizing.
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