Very Serious Iranian People Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

In 2004, Nasser Hadian, a professor from Tehran University who was at the time teaching at Columia, outlined how Iranian elites viewed nuclear weapons.  After this week's NIE, looks like he was on the money.   Hadian argued that there were four schools (PDF) of thought:

1. Iran doesn't need nuclear technology and the risks aren't worth it (Very unpopular.  Betrayal of Iran's basic rights.)
2. Iran has a right to nuclear technology both because of the prestige factor and the economic benefits (Strong support)
3. Iran should have the capability to quickly develop a nuclear capability to defend itself and act as a deterrent.  However, actually building the weapon would be too costly in terms of scaring its neighbors and alienating the world.  And anyway, just having the capability itself would be enough to act as a deterrent. So, it should continue to enrich uranium, leave the door open and stop there.  (Strong support)
4. Iran should withdraw from the NPT and build a bomb (Very unpopular.  Too costly)

This was written four years ago.  So, it may no longer be true.  But it was written around the time that the intel community now believes the Iranians stopped work on their weapons program.  It would actually seem to make a lot of sense to me.  The overwhelming support amongst the elites was for a uranium enrichment program.  But the large majority was against actually pursuing a weapon, but still wanted to at least leave the option open in the future.   Seems like a very rational course for the Iranians to take and one that the NIE would seem to support.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

To clarify this list (technology v. capability) here are Hadian's topical headings:

1. Opponents of Acquiring Nuclear Energy
2. Supporters of Acquiring Nuclear Energy
3. Supporters of Nuclear Weapons Capability
4. Supporters of Acquiring Nuclear Weapons

I wouldn't be surprised if the support for nuclear weapons (#3 & 4) has risen in the last three years as a result of US threatening language and behavior, to include naval maneuvers, kidnapping Iranian citizens and allegedly aiding terrorism within Iran.

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