More Proof That Any Idiot Could Have Seen This Coming Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Just more proof of the shocking incompetence of the Bush Administration getting caught without a genuine Pakistan expert working the issue in State, DOD or the NSC.  Anyone could have seen this coming.  Here's what I wrote three months ago.

With the entire mess going on in Pakistan I can’t help but get a sense that the American reaction to what is going on there today is very similar to what we did with Iran in 1979.

In the 1970s the U.S. armed Iran to the teeth, and counted on it to keep the peace in the Persian Gulf, guarantee shipping lanes for oil and balance the Soviets in the region.  All of our eggs were in that basket and when the Shah started to teeter Washington went into full policy paralysis.  Some in the Carter Administration, most notably Zbig Brzezinski, argued that the consequences of the Shah’s fall were so detrimental to American interests that we had to buck him up and encourage him to take firm steps to quell the rebellion.  Meanwhile, the State Department argued for engaging the Iranian opposition so that we would be well positioned if the Shah fell.  Carter did neither.  Supporting a crackdown was too morally reprehensible, but talking to the opposition was seen as giving up on the Shah and making him look even weaker.  In the end, the U.S. did nothing:  slowly watching the situation deteriorate; giving the Shah its official support; doing little to actually keep him in power; and doing even less to prepare for the possibility that his government would collapse.  Worst of both worlds.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

So what was the alternative in Pakistan? Isn't it possible that there are many events in this world that simply fall outside our control? Not every setback to our interests is a policy failure.

[IlanG]

Dan,

I'm not sure what the alternative was. There probably were no good alternatives. But if I was making staffing decisions at the White House I would sure as hell of made sure I had a bunch of South Asia experts following the issue closely.