Lame Ducks Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Jon Alterman expresses some serious skepticism about the upcoming Middle East peace conference in Annapolis and I think he's right on the money.

Ms Rice brings together two leaders - Israel's Ehud Olmert and the Palestinians' Mahmoud Abbas - in the twilight of their political careers. They are widely ridiculed for their naivety about the nature of their adversary. Political weakness compels the Palestinian side to demand more, and the Israeli side to surrender less. Meanwhile, they are being brought together under the aegis of a US president in the twilight of his own political career, one so burdened with Middle Eastern problems that the Arab-Israeli conflict is now his number three priority in the Middle East, after Iraq and Iran.

One of the main reasons that Oslo was successful is that both Rabin and Arafat were popular and politically powerful in 1992.  They were able to take a risk and rally their people behind a bold idea.  Meanwhile, in 2000 Arafat and Barak were politically weak and Clinton was on his way out, making it much more difficult for any of these players to take the necessary risks to bring about an agreement.  Today looks much more like 2000 than 1992. 

Comments

[Don Bacon]

Lame ducks in the twilight--I like it.

Possible goals for the LDITT conference have been expressed in a letter by Daniel Levy entitled "Prospects for Peace" which promotes a settlement based on UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, the Clinton parameters of 2000, the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and the 2003 Roadmap.

According to the letter, it should reflect the following:

• Two states, based on the lines of June 4, 1967, with minor, reciprocal, and agreed-upon modifications as expressed in a 1:1 land swap;

• Jerusalem as home to two capitals, with Jewish neighborhoods falling under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian sovereignty;

• Special arrangements for the Old City, providing each side control of its respective holy places and unimpeded access by each community to them;

• A solution to the refugee problem that is consistent with the two-state solution, addresses the Palestinian refugees’ deep sense of injustice as well as provides them with meaningful financial compensation and resettlement assistance;

• Security mechanisms that address Israeli concerns while respecting Palestinian sovereignty."

Signers include former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, former US Trade Representative Carla Hills, Former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and US Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering, former Senator Nancy Kassebaum Baker, former House International Relations Committee Chiarman Lee Hamilton, former Counselor to President Kennedy Theodore Sorensen, and former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker.
http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/2007/10/bipartisan_foreign_policy_lead.htm