It's a Power Struggle, Stupid! Posted by David Shorr

Kudos to Fred Kaplan for his Slate column yesterday. Kaplan is right that reconciliation is not within grasp, not in the cards, not really on the table in Iraq. He's also correct, largely, that the implications cut to the core of our options.

Kaplan and I had the same reaction to the same simple yet powerful idea: the political dynamic in Iraq is a zero-sum power struggle. For Kaplan, the eureka moment came in response to a Joshua Partlow piece in Monday's WaPo. For me, it was Brian Katulis and Larry Korb's Strategic Reset report from CAP (yes, this is about the fifth time I've linked to it). Here's how it boils down, the various political/sectarian/militia factions don't view the formal governmental process as a means through which they can protect their interests or amass the power they seek. This strikes at the entire premise of the surge -- and the ongoing troop presence, for that matter -- whatever 'space' US forces are 'opening up,' no political constellation of forces is going to use it to enact the benchmarks. Like we keep hearing, there is no military solution.

There's one point, however, on which Kaplan falls short in following the analysis all the way to its logical conclusion. He says the US can still play a role in pacifying the AQI element of the insurgency. The problem with this relates to the other key point about the power struggle: it is multi-sided, multi-factional, multi-directional. As the 82nd Airborne soldiers put it in the New York Times last August:

Trying to please every party in the conflict — as we do now — will only ensure we are hated by all in the long run.

The confrontation with AQI faces the same difficulty as the rest of the operation, in a war of all against all, how do we know whom we're really helping, and whom we're provoking? Katulis and Korb make an even more interesting point: once Americans pull out of Iraq, guess who becomes the main foreign occupiers?

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Katulis and Korb make an even more interesting point: once Americans pull out of Iraq, guess who becomes the main foreign occupiers?

?????

I'm stumped. The Saudis? Soon possibly the Turks? I wasn't aware that, apart from the Americans, there were any foreign troops in significant numbers inside Iraq. It's almost all a bunch of different kinds of Iraqis fighting each other, right? Those relatively small numbers foreign fighters that are in Iraq fighting for the insurgency are, I take it, from a variety of countries across the Sunni Arab world.

[David Shorr]

The contention is that much of the resentment focused on US troops will turn towards foreign Al Qaeda elements, sans uniforms and military bases, to be sure. Of course you already knew that. It's not claimed that the foreign fighters are equal in scale or profile to our own troops, only that they will draw the same kind of hostility we're drawing and that our absence will heighten their profile. A plausible analysis, I think. But I guess you don't.

[Dan Kervick]

No David, I don't doubt that there are Sunni groups in Iraq prepared to fight Al Qaeda. If reports are to be believed, that is already occurring. But as I understand it, Al Qaeda in Iraq is only one component of a broader collection of Sunni Salafist groups, which are in turn part of spectrum of Sunni resistance groups, of varying degrees of Islamist inflection, running all the way up to the more secular Baathist and nationalist groups. And superimposed on top of all this ideological diversity is the complexity of tribal and clan organization. There is a multi-sided civil war of some kind going on in Iraq alongside the resistance to US occupation; and there will continue to be a multi-sided civil war of some kind after we are gone. It's a total mess, and I don't think anyone can say for sure what the ultimate outcome will be, who will emerge on top, and how long the fighting will last - whether we stay or go.

[Cal]

Lt Col Kilcullen was on Charlie Rose last week and he said that even Al Qaeda is made up mostly of Iraqi fighters, though he claimed the leadership was foreign.

Since we're trying to "leverage xenophobia response", I think we have to take this last claim with a grain of salt.

The Sunnis are going to be in deep trouble when we leave, so they may not have much choice but to accept more foreign fighters. But as Dan says, things are so complex that we can't really know how things will spin out.

[Mike M.]

David,

Your response to Dan was off target. He never said that foreign fighters in Iraq were comparable to US forces in any way. He said that foreign fighters in Iraq, despite the hype they get, are a minority within the Iraqi insurgency. The U.S. government has turned the foreign fighters issue into propaganda that makes it look like we're fighting Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Dan is just pointing out the truth -- we're really still fighting Iraqis, just like we were fighting Iraqis when we started this war.

-Mike

[David Shorr]

I see the point.

[Don Bacon]

There's no military solution in Iraq, but the buckets of profits keep flowing and the US has a huge military presence in the ME heartland, so what's not to like?

"Strategic Reset" is a good plan, I think it's the proper course of action. However it does not jibe with American exceptionalism, a vital part of which is continuing American hegemony in the Middle East.

from SR: "simply staying the course with an indefinite military presence is not advancing U.S. interests."

Actually, it is. Iraq is a strategically-located, resource-rich country, and controlling it is in the US interest. Iraq, bounded by Syria, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, is the keystone of the Middle East. Besides the bounded countries, Iraq is a stone's throw from the oil-rich Caspian Basin, including Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Iraq has huge amounts of tapped and untapped oil deposits, and plentiful surface water. So the US will stay in Iraq.

"even if the security situation does improve, there will not be significant progress on the government side."

Not a problem. The US will run Iraq as it does now, through compliant puppet governors.

"The United States should mitigate the increasingly violent fragmentation in Iraq"

The US has promoted fragmentation in Iraq since it defeated the Iraqi Army over four years ago. Divide and conquer has served the US colonizer well.

"the United States should discard its plan to build the world’s largest embassy in Baghdad"

It won't happen. The embassy and the huge air bases (Balad is one of them--the Air Force brags that it is the busiest in the world after Heathrow) will stay, forever.

[Hellgate London Palladium]

Welcome to our game world, my friend asks me to buy some Hellgate London gold . I do not know how to use the Hellgate gold ; my friend tells me how to use. I will thank for my friends bringing me in this world. I am not regret to buy buy Hellgate Palladium . We all love game, if you want to play it, please cheap hellgate gold and join us. Please do not hesitate to have game.

[buy runescape]

he usually can win a lot of rs gold
then he let his friends all have some runescape money
his friends thank him very much for introducing them the cheap rs gold.

[ghost gen]

Players to do the search for the ghost genof a mysterious invisible enemy in the excitements. This nickname, I have two small things in the ghost online gen.

[cheap 9Dragons gold]

With cheap 9Dragons gold, you can get everything you want in this game. So I like to buy 9 Dragons gold.

[asdas]

The summer is coming,tiffany jewelry is your best choice.So you can choose a popular style tiffany jewelry for yourself.You will be more beautiful.

You may like 646-204 and 642-845,also you want to pass them.We can help you.

[ugg boots sale]

UGG Boots is your best ugg boots sale online Outlet where you can buy the cheapest
Ugg Boots.

[links of london]

I do not mean that your Links of London are not fantastic, but the eyes of women all the time since they highlight you? Do they always believe that whether the Links of london Bracelets you be more attractive Since once the jewelry and dresses are well matched, the private bite and qualities will be open. People natural under Virgo are said to the following tips. Hopefully, the tips existing here with on matching jewelries will be of assistance. Make you obtained are actually proper for you? In simple draft are much better than those in their purity and innocence.

[zachariah]

Authentic Products uggsline.co.uk provides all kinds of UGG Boots in high quality but lowest prices possible from UK. We frequently update the styles of uggsline Boots so please check back to choose your favourite Boots.
UGG boots sale

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!