Sarkoanalysis Posted by Suzanne Nossel

While the idea of politically explosive suburbs seems almost oxymoronic to an American, that's not so in France, where its feared that today's election of Nicolas Sarkozy could ignite violent protests in peri-urban areas inhabited by the countries' disadvantaged Muslim population.  France's Muslims resent Sarkozy for a series of racially insensitive remarks made during the countries' explosive 2005 riots and for unpopular policies he enacted as Interior Minister.  Yet once the fervor dies down, its just possible that Sarkozy's election could mark the start of the Republic's first bona fide attempt to tackle its racial and ethnic tensions. 

There are several reasons to think that Sarkozy is placed to tackle the challenge of integrating and improving the lot of France's Muslims:

- He knows the issues - As a former Interior Minister who was in office during France's worst-ever period of racially-fraught civil unrest last year, Sarkozy knows first hand that his country cannot simply dismiss the problem of marginalized minorities because they live in relative isolation and are outside the country's political and economic elite.  While Sarkozy seemed afraid to even visit the country's gritty ex-urban hi-rises during the campaign, its because he knows the cauldron they have become.  Nothing if not ambitious, because of his personal role at the center of France's worst riots in 35 years, Sarkozy is well aware that failure to address the tensions that stoked the unrest could be his own political undoing.  Sarkozy's political star survived one round of riots, but its hard to see how he weathers a second.

- Sarkozy's offensive "get tough" rhetoric has been paired with some genuinely constructive measures to deal with tensions wrought by migration - Sarkozy's references to urban rioters as scum and his pledge to clean up troubled suburbs with the the equivalent of a water canon triggered legitimate outrage.  His proposal to expel foreigners who took part in the protests was even worse. But these are not the sum-total of Sarkozy's record on race.  He has won praise by some Muslim leaders for playing an instrumental role in convening France's Council of Muslim Faith, a body dedicated to giving Muslims a political voice.  He has also pushed to relax rules for government funding of mosques and elevated Muslims within the French government.

- His political positions suggest he may defy expectations - Unlike his opponent, Segolene Royal, Sarkozy has come out in favor of affirmative action for employment in France as well as ambitious training and jobs programs for youth.  If he delivers in these areas, things should change:  France's elite schools, universities and ministries will get more diverse; the French will see whether there historic commitments to egalite and fraternite can withstand much closer proximite - and -- however awkwardly - social life will gradually start to integrate.   Sarkozy will need to ensure, however, that his proposed creation of a new Ministry of Immigration and National Identity work in support of integration, rather than intimidating minority populations or pushing them to renounce their cultural backgrounds.

- He has the credibility with conservatives to make good on his ideas - Because of his nasty language and get-tough attitude toward crime, Sarkozy is poised to be able to maintain his political base while taking progressive steps to integrate the country's Muslim population.  It's the old Nixon-in-China argument, but those who know Sarkozy - - including some Muslims - - truly believe that once he is in office, the campaign rhetoric will give way in favor of a more empathic and constructive approach.

Whether Sarkozy can defy the predictions of critics depends, at bottom, on him.  During the coming days and weeks as he constitutes his Administration, he will have key opportunities to signal inclusivity by appointing minorities to high-ranking positions and putting measures like job programs and affirmative action at the top of the agenda.  From there, he will move to the hard work of building coalitions and implementing policies.  The problems  - ranging from simple racisim to economic stagnation to fissures within minority communities about what integration and assimilation ought to consist of - are deep-seated.  Sarkozy cannot be expected to solve them, but he can and must be expected to start.

Comments

[Cal]

This is an unbelievable piece of analysis. It's like arguing that only a Republican will be able to enact progressive civil rights legislation after running a 'southern strategy' campaign.

Sarkozy won by appealing to the Le Pen vote, despite some "compassionate conservative" posturing in the run-off. (Le Pen complained that Sarkozy was stealing his "ideas.") There's every indication that Sarkozy intends to continue reaching out to the far right -- not to the Muslims in the suburbs. His economic program alone will be a disaster for the poor -- disproportionately Muslim.

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Yeah, it's unbelievable. It's like arguing that Richard Nixon would open to China...

Oh, wait.

:)

Actually, it is not that uncommon. Jimmy Carter ran as a racial conservative in his successful gubernatorial campaign and then moved left at his inauguration. I doubt Sark will go on appealing to the right on immigration now that he is elected.

Also, I question whether his economic policies will be a "disaster" for the poor. Sarkozy recognizes, as his opponent did not, that some of the French labor and pension policies MUST be adjusted to compete. Her solution was higher taxes and more generous benefits. How much higher unemployment can the "suburban" youth tolerate? I was for Sarkozy domestically, and Royal's foreign policy. But had I been French, I would have voted Sarkozy.

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