A "Second Nuclear Age" in Asia?

May 31, 2007

A "Second Nuclear Age" in Asia?
Posted by Michael Schiffer

At a meeting I attended today in Singapore, Raja Mohan offered some sobering thoughts on an incipient "second nuclear age" in Asia:

This term captures the essence of a number of changes in global nuclear politics including the shift in the contested terrain from Europe to Asia, growing Asian military capabilities, the rise of nuclear nationalism, the late-mover advantages to new proliferators, and the rise of the non-state actors. The conscious or unconscious international responses to these are indeed part of the unfolding structural change in the global nuclear politics. The Bush Administration has accelerated the change in three areas. One, it has redefined the relationship between offence and defense in the calculus of nuclear deterrence. Two, Washington has looked beyond the established non-proliferation law to deal more vigorously with the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Missile defense, counter-proliferation, pre-emption, regime change, and a willingness to differentiate between good nukes and bad nukes are part of this new game. Three, the Bush Administration has reversed nearly three decades of American opposition to the spread of civilian nuclear power.

I don't know if I share Raja's pessimism (he would call it realism, I suppose) about how far down this road we may already be. But I do share his sense that the revolutionary changes wrought by the administration’s approach to US nuclear posture and non-proliferation policy have potentially profound consequences for the region – and may well end up making the US far less secure from the threat of nuclear weapons than we are today. To take one example: The administration's efforts to alter the fundamental nature of deterrence, combined with its focus on missile defense, has, as Raja pointed out, introduced a new tension between the Chinese nuclear arsenal and its plans for protection against a potential nuclear attack – and appears to be altering Chinese thinking and plans about the size and nature of its nuclear arsenal. Its hard to see how a potential US-China nuclear arms race, with possible spillover effects elsewhere in the region, serves US national security interests well. Likewise, if not handled right, the proliferation challenges presented by Asian plans to rapidly expand civilian nuclear power programs – plans which may well be necessary given the dual challenges of sustaining economic development and seeking to avert catastrophic climate change – may bring in their wake a whole new range of difficulties, not the least of which include the potential for vast new stockpiles of nuclear material vulnerable to terrorist threat.

Building a new consensus to head-off the risks of the potential dawning of a “second nuclear age” in Asia -- starting with our own approach to nuclear weapons -- will require US leadership, sustained diplomacy, and a focused dialogue on all nuclear-related issues among the Asian-Pacific nations. The alternative is none too pleasant to contemplate.

May 31, 2007 at 05:43 AM | Permalink

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May 31, 2007