A Failing Superpower? Posted by Michael Fuchs

Yesterday, militants in Nigeria attacked oil pipelines as part of ongoing violence to disrupt oil production and supply. Today, four U.S. oil workers were kidnapped by gunmen off the Nigerian coast. Yet these attacks may just be the tip of the iceberg of Nigeria's problems.   

At a Stanley Foundation conference last year I heard an interesting description of Nigeria during a panel on rising powers. One of the panelists, Coit Blacker, asked, "Can you be both a regional superpower and a failing state at the same time? I think the answer's probably yes."

I'm no Nigeria expert, but this seems like an observation worth considering. Nigeria is a huge energy producer and Africa's most populous nation. At the same time, however, it is fractured by religious and ethnic conflict. Poverty remains at staggering levels, with roughly 52% of the population living on less than $1 a day. Regional security is less than stellar.

This, all while Nigeria struggles to institutionalize its fledgling democracy. The recent presidential elections were widely criticized as unfair and questions about the state of democracy in Nigeria abound. Militants have vowed to continue attacks in the run-up to the inauguration of the new president. As Nigeria attempts its first peaceful democratic transition, its democracy - like many other things in Nigeria - seems to be in trouble.

After today's kidnappings, oil prices immediately rose. Yet, in the midst of a region with such dire problems (see Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Central African Republic, Chad, Liberia, etc.), oil supply may be only one of many larger problems if Nigeria's situation further deteriorates.

We should start paying attention before the largest U.S. trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa becomes a failed regional superpower - if it isn't already.   

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