Does the Road to Jerusalem Go Through Damascus? Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

We’ve all figured out that the road to Jerusalem doesn’t go through Baghdad.  But perhaps a peace agreement between Damascus and Jerusalem is a logical next step?  Rob Malley makes a compelling argument that there is an opportunity to negotiate a Syrian-Israeli peace accord. 

Sandwiched between civil strife in Iraq and Lebanon, facing increasing sectarian polarization throughout the region, losing political legitimacy at home and confronted with acute economic problems, the Syrian regime is eager for renewed domestic popularity and international investment. What better than a peace deal with Israel and recovery of the Golan Heights — with all the attendant diplomatic and economic benefits — most notably normalization with the West — to achieve those goals?

Let’s assume for a second that this deal can actually get done (I understand it’s a quite an assumption).  The impact on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process would be significant, taking what right now is a stalemated situation and creating a number of potential openings.   

There are always three parts to the equation that you have to look at when trying to determine the possibility of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement.  Is there a stable Israeli government that is willing to deal?  Is there a stable Palestinian government that is willing to deal?  And is there a credible interlocutor? 

How are these criteria holding up?  Ehud Olmert’s approval rating is a mind bogglingly low 3%.  There is an argument to be made that because none of the parties in his coalition want new elections he might actually be at the head of a pretty stable government. But still, I have a hard time believing that a Prime Minister with a 3% approval rating has the political flexibility to negotiate a final status agreement.  On the Palestinian front the Mecca Agreement to form a unity government between Fatah and Hamas actually means that there is more stability inside the West Bank and Gaza.  Unfortunately, since Hamas still won’t recognize Israel, the Israelis and Americans will still only speak with Abbas.  In terms of a credible interlocutor, Iraq has so destroyed the Bush Administration’s credibility in the region that it’s hard to believe anything can be done while Bush is in office.  Maybe the Saudis can step into the breach?  But probably not.

A deal with the Syrians could significantly improve the situation.  A central element of the agreement would be a cut off of Syrian support for Hamas and Hezbollah.  This would increase Fatah’s power in the territories and might force Hamas to recognize Israel, which would in turn lead to negotiations between Israel and a unified Palestinian government.  A breakthrough would clearly improve Olmert’s position.  It can’t get worse.  If the United States played a major role in an agreement it would undoubtedly have a positive impact on how it is perceived within the region.  Taken together these developments could set the table for productive negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Then again.  Chances are no one is going to seize this opportunity and even if they did one of the parties would most likely find a way to screw it up.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

If the United States played a major role in an agreement it would undoubtedly have a positive impact on how it is perceived within the region.

A positive impact on how it is perceived by whom, exactly? The US played a major role in the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement. Is the perception of the US in the region today more or less favorable than it was in 1977?

[Cal]

Dan's right -- but only if we impose a solution on Hamas by starving the Palestinians and subsidizing Fatah. This is our current policy, and seems to Ilan's favored solution as well.

The idea that Hamas has to recognize Israel before negotiations is bizarre. (Northern Ireland would still be a powder keg if we tried this with Sein Fein). By trying to dictate a final settlement that the majority of Palestinians and Arabs view as unjust, our image will continue to suffer, even if we turn the Syrian regime into an ally.

[IlanG]

Cal,

I actually don't agree with the policy of not talking to Hamas until they officially recognize Israel. But at this point I don't think that Israel or the U.S. are going to budge on this point, so we might as well work to get Hamas to recognize Israel.

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