Toward an Outkast-Approved Iran Policy? Posted by Shadi Hamid

"Don't pull that thang out, unless you plan to bang." You know you're politics-obsessed if this makes you think first and foremost of the Bush administration's failed Iran policy. In any case, Matt Yglesias reminds us that you can, indeed, find foreign policy wisdom in the most unexpected places, including in Outkast songs. Threats have to be credible in order for them to be, um, credible threats. And, unfortunately/fortunately, the threat to bomb Iran isn't particularly credible at this point. Matt makes a good point that isn't made nearly enough:

If a bombing campaign would do more to strengthen the regime and relax its growing diplomatic isolation than it would to set back the nuclear program, then the regime would be relatively eager for us to bomb them.

Comments

[Jonathan Ossoff]

Those of us from Atlanta are not surprised to find such wisdom in Outkast's lyrics.

[gex]

Remember we are dealing with a reality challenged administration here. To them a credible threat is one that upon which we will follow through. Whether the results of following through will be effective is another matter entirely.

In this sense, I disagree with the statement that the threat of bombing Iran is not credible. It is entirely credible given the people running the show. If it just happens to hurt America and help Iran is of no consequence in this regard.

[K.H.Flottorp]

1. Remember we are dealing with a reality challenged administration here
Wrong: The military is running Iran, the president receives his orders not only from the mullahs, but the military (this lacks in most analysis)
2. The US "threat" is nonsense, and the Iranians know that. Unfortunately, since most of the US media reports just one side of the story, the other is not told. Iran also supplies most of the water to the other Gulf states - UAE (Dubai), Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Eastern region in Saudi - Dharhan where Aramco ships their oil. So, close down the water supply for 3 hours, and they will all agree. The next is the US military in the region is completely dependent on fuel FROM IRAN. 1.2 million MT is reported to OPEC last month as "smuggled" - that is close to 10 million BBL of 400 million gallons. All the civilian cars in the region cannot consume this much petrol.
3. The US is financially bankrupt. Tehran and Moscow want crude traded in Euro. They have support now from most of OPEC. Any escalation of the conflict will make the EUR replace USD as currency for trading and the US is bankrupt - default. US troops can be reassigned for supervising the trafick in Tehran as police, the aircraft carriers sold where they are - to e.g. China or Iran. The worldwide financial collapse will eradicate the debt of all less developed nations, and give them a clean start. However, the US economy will be the only one suffering with staggering obligations that needs to be honoured for generations.

I would not rattle with arms in this position.

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