Danger Danger Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

There is what could potentially be a huge and I mean absolutely huge story out there right now.  A number of serious Pakistan watchers are warning that recent protests indicate that the regime may be in danger.  Ahmed Rashid in today’s WaPo

Musharraf is now too weak to pursue policies that could keep his back-stabbers in check, restore his credibility at home and abroad, and pursue his agenda of remaining in power for the next five years.

According to former Ambassador Teresita Schaeffer (warning PDF) “it has shaken the aura of invincibility that Musharraf has enjoyed until now.”

America’s relationship with Musharraf is similar to that of the Shah in the 1970s.  We have put all our strategic eggs in this basket.  When the protests against the Shah began in 1978 they were ignored.  His strength was taken for granted until it was too late for the U.S. to salvage its interests in Iran.  And by salvage I don’t mean bucking up the Shah at all costs but looking at all options available. 

Nobody knows exactly what would happen if Musharraf loses power and most likely he will survive.  But considering its role in the “war on terror”, considering it’s a nuclear power, considering that whenever you ask a foreign policy analyst “what’s your nightmare scenario?” the word Pakistan is usually involved in the answer you’d think people would be paying more attention.  I guess that’s what happens when you invade a country you shouldn’t have invaded and fire U.S. Attorneys for political reasons.  You get too busy.  Little things like Pakistan fall through the cracks.

Comments

[Zathras]

We ought to consider that within the Pakistani security services the most controversial part of Musharraf's record is probably not related either to democracy in Pakistan, to al-Qaeda sheltering in the Northwest Territories, or to Afghanistan. It is instead his policy of reducing tensions with India, particularly over Kashmir.

It is possible that Musharraf's success in this regard has had the perverse effect of strengthening al-Qaeda; prevented from using Pakistani territory as a base from which to launch attacks against Indians in Kashmir, those Pakistanis inclined toward some kind of jihad might be drawn to the groups intent on causing trouble in Afgahnistan. But this is only speculation; what seems undeniable is that the most dangerous scenario in terms of possible use of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal involves a war with India, most likely with Kashmir as the proximate cause. Musharraf -- whose record in other respects is open to great criticsm -- does not I think get quite enough credit here for his efforts to make such a war less likely, or recognition for the risks he has run in that cause.

[martin braun]

Of course you are absolutely right about Musharraf being a political analogy for the Shah, in Iran. I can still remember articles written by the pundits in New York magazine back in the early-mid seventies describing how the Shah was going to wsweep through all of the Arabian crescent, on his American supplied military hardware and use uis modern ,(american trained) army to take all the oil and set himself up as the new power broker in that part of the world.
n the same way, when Musharraf took over, he looked invincible to American reporters and policymakers and was even a favorite of many Americans because (one?) of his sons was a wealthy Chicago plutocrat , educated in the US and who lived here and spoke English with an American accent.
But time passes and all things must change. There were no concerns of a Muslim jihad leaking out of the Islamic countries then, and no one knew that the Muslims only supported the West because they hated the Russians more.
I even met a few of the Iranian revolutionaries,(they called themselves persians), at CCNY, who went around with paper bags on their heads so the awful SAVAK would not recognize them. Little did they think they would unleash a an infinitely worse corruption on their own country in the name of freeing it from the now fondly remembered Shah.
There is probably nothing AMerica can do about events in the Islamic nations. They have a press and broadcasting network that we actually support that pours out anti Western spleen like it was pollution into Love Canal. They get away with this without complain because they speak English but we do not speak Arabic, Urdu or Pashtun. What we do not understand, we do not hear. and therefore we allow it to go on provoking the ignorant masses of Muslims who can barely read and hold ourselves pure for not halting such propaganda because we believe so strongly in Freedom of Speech, (even though the Mulims are yelling "Fire" in numerous crowded theatres).
Our best policy might be to just leave Ira and Afghanistan and allow Musharraf to crumble , as do all cookies. Hopefully the Arabs would end up involved in a 50 year civil war that would push oil prices to such a height that we would be forced to go nuclear. At least we would be doing something about global warming. That millions of Arabs and Indians and Africans would die is awful , but they will die whatever we do. It's best that we not have our fingers in the pie when it starts to get sliced up.
Oil is an energy form that was invented and made popular in the 19th century and it has empowered some of the most vicious and stuppid pewople who have lived since the Roman Empire. We have had over 100 years of Combustion Economy and it is killing us, now. It is time to give up oil and those it has empowered in the same way many people have given up their tobacco addictions.
It is painful only for a short time, and those who made money selling us the stuff will find another way to exploit someone else. At least we will be free of a filthy addiction that is comparable to alcoholism or cocaine habituation.

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