"First, Don't Panic"
Posted by Heather Hurlburt
Rather than pretend to be a North Korea expert, I'll put on my "expert on the experts" hat and summarize/link to some of the better web analysis/commentary on the North Korea situation.
For starters, that sanguine advice from former US Ambassador to Korea Donald Gregg:
First: Don't panic. Kim Jong Il's objective is survival and eventual change in North Korea, not suicide. The diplomatic situation in Northeast Asia will be immensely complicated by the North Korea test, which I think was a huge mistake on their part, but missiles are not about to start flying.
Gregg further posits that we may be seeing the ascendancy of a hard-line faction within North Korea (when someone explains to me what a non-hard line faction looks like in the North Korean context, I'll let you know) and joins James Baker in making the plaint that this Administration doesn't understand that you negotiate with your enemies, not your friends, as Yitzhak Rabin once said.
As for the longer-term implications, a former British diplomat sets out in some detail the case for worry that this test breaks down nuclear inhibitions in "as many as 30" other countries that could become nuclear powers if they so desired.
The specific worry is Asia, most immediately Japan. Steve Clemons, who was a Japan expert before he became a blogger-about-town, suggests tersely that Japan is "outgrowing its nuclear allergy" and draws some links between John Bolton's behavior and the North Koreans decision to test. One wants to believe that the North Koreans make their decisions based on more than just what comes out of Bolton's mouth, but you never know.
I learned from this Council on Foreign Relations summary of links that Walter Russell Meade and the CATO Institute agree with Steve that a Japanese move to go nuclear is not unlikely. CFR also cites a subscription-only piece at Stratfor which says the test may show that China's leverage over North Korea is diminishing. A CNN report from before the test alleges that this remark by the Chinese PermRep to the UN angered North Korea's military leadership and may have spurred it to move the test forward:
...for bad behavior in this world no one is going to protect them.
The Chinese ambassador said this in response to Bolton referring to his country as North Korea's protector on the Security Council.
So just to sum up, we have a thumbs-down for:
- The global moral norm that nuclear weapons are bad;
- The U.S. ability to enforce same;
- The U.S. ability to deter proliferation;
- China's influence over its difficult neighbor.
Who gets a thumbs-up out of this?
- Japanese (and South Korean) hardliners who want to go nuclear;
- People (and politicians) who are tired of Mark Foley.*
*Based on a highly-unscientific survey, conducted at 9:30 pm, of 10 newspapers serving states with tight Senate races: six led with North Korea over Foley, two still have Foley over North Korea, and two either carried neither or had them in tiny type well down the page.
Let's see now--the U.S. calls a country one of our three enemies (every superpower needs enemies), invades and occupies one of the other two, threatens to invade the third with nuclear weapons, reneges on a treaty with the first and then is surprised when that country takes action to defend itself, calling it a threat to world peace endangering "the global system of self-restraint." Restraint by whom? Certainly not by the U.S. Nor by our ally, also a non-restrainer, Pakistan, a non-signatory of the NPT who helped North Korea develop its weapon.
Posted by: Don Bacon | October 09, 2006 at 11:27 PM
Because of fiesta money, I meet a lot of friends. Besides, my friends usually give me some fiesta online gold. I usually buy fiesta Gold through Internet and advice from my friends. I gain a lot of fiesta online money and harvest in life.
Posted by: fiesta Gold | December 24, 2008 at 11:31 PM
my brother says priston tale Money is his favorite games gold he likes,
Posted by: cheap priston tale Gold | January 06, 2009 at 09:51 PM
I hope i can get GuildWars Gold in low price.
i buy Guild Wars Gold for you.
Posted by: gw gold | January 19, 2009 at 09:50 PM
Once I played wonderland, I did not know how to get strong, someone told me that you must have wonderland Gold. He gave me some wonderland online Gold.
Posted by: Runes of Magic Gold | February 14, 2009 at 04:09 AM
He is a good boy and like buy vis , she like cheap snw vis .
Posted by: cheap snw vis | March 04, 2009 at 01:11 AM
Do you like playing the game where you need to use maple mesos, when you do not have mesos,
Posted by: maple mesos | March 20, 2009 at 01:27 AM
Plastic parts made by injection molding
printing in China
construction scaffolding
Posted by: molded rubber products | July 10, 2009 at 04:28 AM
Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!
Posted by: cheap coach handbags | January 29, 2010 at 09:35 PM
This is a good,common sense article.Very helpful to one who is just finding the resouces about this part.It will certainly help educate me.
Posted by: China Tent | October 13, 2010 at 03:10 AM
thanks for sharing Sohbet many people are pay more attention to one's swearing than before, especially a watch.Muhabbet.
Perhaps when you went to some place far away Sohbet you must borrow it from friends you can get everything you want in this game Chat money to invest in other industry which will return you good profit. Sohbet when you look at Chat
the surface of the watches viaload great any cool Exsohbet from the city you live in and thought you knew nobody there Egitim Fourth, there were various signs of political conflict among shia. If they split 3 ways or 4 ways, the sunnis and the kurds could often be the Sohbet swing votes in the politics. If they felt they had political clout out of proportion to their numbers, they could settle in Sohbet and do politics and not feel oppressed.
Posted by: Network | January 13, 2011 at 08:47 AM
I am totally agree with your oppinion.this blog post is very encouraging to people who want to know these topics.
Posted by: China Inflatable | July 25, 2011 at 12:25 AM