Dust Yourselves Off, and Get Up Posted by Shadi Hamid

I spoke to a friend over the phone last week, as the Middle East was coming apart. He was incredibly pessimistic about the future of the region, almost to the point of despair. We are losing the Iranian people, he told me. The gains of the Cedar Revolution have been lost. The democracy promotion agenda has been tucked away in a lockbox. I tried to counter some of his points, but I found it rather difficult. Because, no matter what way you look at it, it really is all quite depressing (see my previous post). I remember the burgeoning optimism of last year. 2005. I really did think, then, that 2005 would stand decisive in the unfolding story of the Middle East. It was an exciting time, where things, for once, seemed alive. Of course, this is the Middle East where nothing turns out quite the way you hope it will. Perhaps I should have known better.

This morning, trying to remember how I felt back then in the heady days of early 2005, I reread an article I had written for The Jerusalem Post (2/1/05). It was titled “A Democratic Moment.” And it was, as the title suggests, a rather optimistic piece - except for a short cautionary note:

This, however, is a different time, a time when 'democracy' is on the lips of millions of Arabs who have never tasted it. There is cause for hope, but it would be dangerous to see this as a harbinger of great things to come. This is not Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands rallied in the icy cold in jubilant solidarity.

Yes, this is not Ukraine. It is the Arab world.

We are, however, at a turning point. And we are faced with a couple different choices. We can accept defeat, and let the Middle East continue being what it has been for the last several decades – a dangerous powder keg, which explodes every couple years (or months). Or we can dust ourselves off, get up, and regroup.

Comments

[Lane Brody]

Democracy takes practice and is difficult at first. The U.S. did not get it right at first and fought a very intense civil war decades after it's founding not to mention other times of very serious civil discord.

The average Iranian apparently does not wish to risk his life to revolt against the regime. The only real hope is that eventually they prefer a chance for freedom, even at the cost of their lives, to the security of slavery. That said the West should be treating them much more as they treated South Africa.

Lebanon made a choice to live and let live and allow Hizbollah to keep it's weapons, unlike every other militia group. Hizbollah then chose for Lebanon to involve them all in conflict with Israel. Democracy doesn't always mean you make the right choice. The peacefull democratic nations of Europe chose incorrectly in the 1930's and were almost all occupied in the 1940's.

Hamas may have been elected but elections in and of themselves do not mean a prosperous future. The elections in Germany where the Nazi party first came to real power looked different to the average German by 1945. Over the long term Hamas being elected is probably a good thing as one might be able to say ok we tried that.

The point is that things looking good in 2005 and bad in 2006 don't really matter. What matters is what everything looks like in ten and twenty years. The trend is for more democracy and women gaining more rights including voting. Women vote in every Arab nation where elections are held except Saudi Arabia. Long term that is something to feel hopefull about and is an indicator of powerfull long term trends.

In the world of the 24/7 news cycle and the blogosphere it's often difficult to find or hold on to a long term perspective.

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"In the world of the 24/7 news cycle and the blogosphere it's often difficult to find or hold on to a long term perspective."

A good point Lane.

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