Blair at Georgetown Posted by Derek Chollet

Like many people, I suspect, I am still catching up on the weekend’s reading after being away for the holiday.  But one piece in particular deserves attention: Tony Blair’s speech last Friday at Georgetown.

Blair’s speech was the long overdue third in a series that he’s been giving over the past few months about the global challenges we face and what we need to do to meet them.  As I wrote a few weeks ago about the previous two speeches, I believe that these are the most thoughtful, and potentially important, statements that I’ve heard on global politics in some time.  Of course I don’t agree with every word, but all are well worth reading.

Last Friday’s speech made some news because of rumors that the White House had asked Blair to rework some parts, especially about Iran.  Downing Street denies this, and whatever the truth, it should not overshadow the central message: that, in Blair’s words, “there is a hopeless mismatch between the global challenges we face and the global institutions to confront them,” and therefore we need to launch a bold restructuring.

As E.J. Dionne pointed out today, Blair “amended Bush's approach to the world with a vigorous internationalism that would appeal to many of the president's critics.”

Blair outlines some pretty far-reaching ideas: expanding the UN Security Council to include Germany, Japan, and India; a more powerful UN Secretary General; a streamlined and more effective UN humanitarian and development system; a new UN environment agency; a global “bank” for uranium to ensure safe enrichment of nuclear fuel; a reformed IMF and World Bank, and possibly a merger of the two; and an expanded G-8.

Many of these ideas are debatable, but I think that what's most important about them -- and about the larger perspective Blair offers -- is that they comprise a set of policies and an overall framework that many on both sides of the political aisle could embrace. 

Again, I think Dionne is right: “Paradoxically, Bush's best ally may have delivered to the president's political opponents the outlines of a coherent approach to the world. To believe in internationalism, international cooperation and global justice is not soft, but essential and practical. Some who would never accept such thoughts from the likes of John Kerry or Al Gore might give them a second look after hearing them from Blair.”

Comments

[Zathras]

One could say that the phrase "messianic globaloney" was invented to describe speeches like Blair's, but that is too cruel and dismissive for me. I prefer to see Blair's speech as part of a search for the way back to Sept. 10, 2001.

I do not argue with -- because I share -- most of Blair's beliefs about what should be. I do think he confuses what should be with what is, however, and the essential task of foreign policy must be to deal with what is. However desirable it may be to think in terms of a global consensus on values ("liberty, democracy, tolerance, justice"), such a consensus does not exist now nor is it likely to in the future. Insisting that it must is not an answer.

Blair's speech itself illustrates what we are up against. Take just one example: Blair insists that Sudan (I assume he means not just the Darfur situation but the long war waged by the central government against that countries southern tribes before that) proves that we need "...an empowered international actor; the capacity to intervene militarily; and a properly orchestrated humanitarian response. And we needed all of it, from the beginning."

Do we indeed? A consensus on values among the international community would surely be enough to thrust a vulnerable government like Sudan's into a cold and forbidding isolation should it attempt anything so repugnant to shared values as genocide.

But in fact Sudan is not isolated; it enjoys the steadfast support of its fellow Arab states. Arab governments make no criticism of Khartoum in public, nor do they in combination spend as much succoring Darfur's victims as any one of several European countries does by itself; Arab media has been silent for over three years as an Arab government has slaughtered Muslims by the tens of thousands. It is not because the UN is weak or its peacekeeping machinery inefficient that this has happened; we are not talking about a structural problem here. Fundamentally a significant group of states believes that the crime Americans and Europeans have regarded with a special horror since 1945 is no big deal, provided the victims are Africans and the perpetrators are Arab.

Blair knows this, but chooses not to say this. He appears to believe that if America and the European democracies act as if there were a worldwide consensus on values, one will develop. There is an optimistic view that this is what happened as the Balkan crises of the 1990s proceeded. But in fact what brought peace to the Balkans was the mutual exhaustion of the warring parties and the momentary weakness of Serbia's traditional patron, Russia -- allied not with the values of the West, but with its power.

If the Cold War should teach us anything, it should teach us that major differences in values should be seen clearly and addressed in plain language. If the West's values really are stronger, they should bear such a test, as they did before over many years and in spite of many difficulties. Barbarism, despotism, and savagery must be called by their right names; we should never pretend that they are something they are not because this is what we wish were true.

At the same time Western action must be constrained by the limits of Western power. Before September 11, 2001 it may have looked as if we were within site of a world where all differences could be managed with the application of massive amounts of goodwill and suitably strong international institutions -- Tony Blair's prescription. But this was always an illusion. Sin and evil, savagery and barbarism are facts of life in this world, but while we must always recognize them for what they are we need to recognize that we will not always be able to do more than that right away.

If men were angels, said Madison, no government would be necessary. No foreign policy would be necessary either, but men are not angels and never will be on this earth. It does not matter how hard we wish they were, or how strenuously we insist that realism demands that we act as if they were, or how cleverly we redesign international institutions. Foreign policy is not about the search for utopia, but rather about the struggle to preserve hope against the current of man's failings. Tony Blair exudes hope, but a successful foreign policy requires that the strength of the current be considered too. A foreign policy that does not do this is doomed to produce disillusionment -- something else Blair, of all people, ought to understand by now.

[Craig]

The weird thing is that here and there Blair does say some useful things. But there's much that should have been said five years ago. And a certain amount that's not particularly true. And a great deal that is undermined by Blair's loss of credibility over the last four years.

There's also a great deal of wishful thinking in the speech. Blair still has a public opinion of Bush that is not shared by the world or a majority of our country. There's also a certain obstinancy to some of his claims about what the world shares in values and how the world should be ordered. Although I share his sense of internationalism to some degree, I don't think his speech is quite as forward thinking (or even humble) as it needs to be and that may be because Bush is still part of the audience and because there's still some heavy lifting to be done by all parties interested in foreign policy issues.

The most important part of Blair's speech is simply the recognition that the world's foreign policy apparatus is no longer adequate to the task; but, what Blair does not say, and it's the elephant in the room that needs to be recognized, is this: whatever things the world can do together in the area of foreign policy is difficult without the power, leadership and foreign policy apparatus of the United States but, at least in the area of foreign policy, the government of the United States at the moment is broken. Our government has become dysfunctional.

Yes, even if the US government were not broken, it would be necessary to update and somehow improve the world's foreign policy apparatus (in a broader, perhaps even in a more respectful, way than I think Blair is conceiving of at the moment). But there are such things as priorities. If the United States is to continue to have a role, the priority is to stop damaging ourselves and to start making repairs and to start rejoining the world; we are a long ways from accomplishing any of those three things and anything ambitious at the moment has to be postponed until changes are made. Anything beyond cleanup mode is extremely dangerous at this time. Blair ought to know that.

If Blair is serious about what he's saying, he ought to resign, let somebody with more credibility take over and start rebuilding his own credibility.

[David Billington]

Proposals to reform international institutions won't solve deeper problems that result from basic differences between nations. But I don't think it follows that these differences are really fixed.

The constraints on U.S. policy and on what is possible to change in the world are really functions of a domestic and international situation that is hostage to events. If a terrorist nuke goes off in an American city, for example, all of the present constraints on U.S. action will be lifted. A killer virus originating in a poor African country that takes thirty million American lives would also prompt U.S. action that would be inconceivable under present conditions.

There is today a lot of attention given to various dangers (nuclear weapons, emerging diseases, climate change) and some thought is given to what we can do to avert these dangers under the realities that constrain policy today. But why can't we debate what we would do in response to an event that removes the present constraints on U.S. and international action? It is not enough to seek the best action we can take under existing conditions. We also need a sense of what action would actually be effective and then we need to imagine the changed conditions that would make such action possible. We might then see more clearly what stands in the way of effective action today.

[Than]

I think Blair is right. A new approach to global politics needs to start with the UN. I wish he would have adressed the Millennium Development Goals in his speech. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the set of goals that the US and 189 other countries agreed to at the Millennium Summit. The Millennium Development Goals are a feasible solution to global poverty that has been endorsed by the world's leading politicians and economists.

If we're trying to fight a war against terror and extemeism, we're currently doing it with one hand tied behind our back. The other half of this war needs to be a massive effort to improve the situation of those living in extreme poverty around the world. Extreme poverty breeds a culture of hopelessness and despair wherein terrorism seems like a viable way to get a message across. As the world's agenda setter, we need to be at the frontlines of poverty reduction, which includes promoting a plan to end global poverty. The Millennium Goals cannot and should not be ignored.

[Dan Kervick]

While I welcome Blair’s call for a vigorous new internationalist agenda, and the need to rebuild and restructure international institutions, several portions of his speech disturbed me, and turned me quite off.

What is most disturbing is that Blair’s discourse continues to partake of a desperate, intellect-crippling spirit of denial. Blair’s inability to accept that the foreign policies we have chosen in the past – including the very recent past - have anything at all to do with the hostility we face is startling. I don't expect Blair to don sackcloth and begin wailing and apologizing for the errors of his own regime and oppressions of the British empire. We can all agree that that empire brought others some mixture of blessings and curses. But in Blair's worldview, nothing bad that has happened is because of anything he, or his predecessors have done wrong. It is all the fault of the threat posed by our purity and tolerance and overall wonderfulness to the depraved belief systems of the evil ones.

Blair is like a man who has helped to smash open Pandora’s box, unleashing catastrophic damage, who then says: I didn’t do anything wrong; the harm is all the fault of the evil furies who were in the box.

I understand that there is a crude and childlike 'blame America exclusively" or "blame the West exclusively" attitude to be encountered in the world, both in the West and elsewhere. But surely a "blame America never" or "blame the West never" attitude is equally crude and childlike. Surely neither attitude characterizes a mature and rational mind, or the thinking of a person who has any familiarity at all with human nature, history and the actions of states and individuals. Perhaps Blair is being obtuse. But I suspect it is more likely a matter of dishonesty born of having backed himself into a rhetorical corner from which he now finds no escape.

Blair says “we have to attack not just its methods but its ideas, its presumed and false sense of grievance against the West, its attempt to persuade us that it is we and not they who are responsible for its violence.” Thus with a sweep of a single sentence Blair discards every Muslim grievance against the West into the rubbish bin. Anyone who experiences this sense of grievance is a wholly deluded victim of sheer falsity. The PM’s fierce desert determination to put his fingers in his ears and resist the intellectual temptations of The Accuser is almost touching. But no rational person would adopt such an attitude even toward his best friends and loved ones – the people who are the objects of his best intentions. We can all agree that our friends and loved ones sometimes have some basis for a sense of grievance against us. Who could deny then, that the same is true in the case of people with whom we have long been in various states of conflict?

We see much of the same phenomenon in Blair that we are seeing in Islamist militants and in the American religious right. The global interdependence which Blair rightly calls to our attention is producing everywhere a "to the ramparts" mentality. People feel their traditional values and conventional opinions under threat; they feel the disquiet in their own minds and the pull of curiosity and doubt and critical abrasion. It scares them, and so they retreat to fideistic defenses of their values, to traditionalism. This is no less true of the "liberal" traditionalism of Blair and American liberal elites than of the traditionalism of those more conservative groups.

Blair makes not even a gesture in the direction of global dialogue; he shows no recognition at all of the possibility that in the exciting encounter of civilizations that awaits us in the 21st century we all might find ourselves morally transformed and improved. Can he really be so thick, or is this stance just the politician's standard dishonest and supine groveling to the forces of cultural orthodoxy? No person who has any experience of thoughtful encounter with other cultures and beliefs could believe that they will come away with their creeds and values unchanged. Heavens, that sometimes happens even when one reads a single great book. Surely the same must happen when one engages with millennia-old civilizations. It is one thing to stand up for ones values in the sense that one is determined to give them the best defense of which they are capable. It is another to decide, in advance, that after the encounter one will end up morally in the same place one started.

Blair’s erratic and extreme thinking leads him beyond an agenda of sensible internationalism and broad-based global problem-solving, toward a radical doctrine of revolutionary global interventionism that is totalistic and ideologically uncompromising. Since, to his way of thinking, the threats we face are mainly the result of the evil beliefs of others, and since we are now so interdependent that we can no longer defend ourselves against the evil-doers, it seems have no choice but to embark on a global campaign of thought rectification, aimed at transplanting the correct beliefs into the barbarian minds.

I worry that Blair’s mental strain and vulnerable psychological state have made him an easy mark for flatterers and manipulators. In interpreting the situation in Iraq, he seems determined to maintain the distinction between the democrats – presumably members of the government he pow-wows with in his discussions with Iraqis – and the others, the terrorists, who are responsible for all the violence:

They kill ordinary Iraqis for wanting to join the police or build the country or just for being of one religious persuasion not another. Theirs is a strategy drenched in the blood of the innocent.

No doubt that’s true. But who are “they”? At least some of “them” are comrades of the very same wonderful democrats Blair is meeting with. So while there is plenty on innocent blood spilt, in some cases it is the guilty killing the guilty, in a bloody a cycle of oppression and reprisal and counter-reprisal. And the same person then lunches with his brother-in-law or cousin or local shaikh who sits in the government.

Whenever I think about Iraq, I compulsively recall this line from Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address, spoken as he reflected on the inaugural four years before:

While the inaugural address was being delivered from this place, devoted altogether to saving the Union without war, insurgent agents were in the city seeking to destroy it without war--seeking to dissolve the Union and divide effects by negotiation.

Surely Blair must see that many of the people who profess to be his allies in building Iraqi democracy, who ask for money and support and protection, are only temporary allies of convenience, laying the ground for various conceivable divisions of Iraq’s effects. The same people who lick Blair’s boots and tell him what he needs to hear are conspiring with sectarian militias to promote private and local agendas, and to murder rivals.

I appreciate Blair is sincere in seeking a moment of reconciliation and a new concord. But the problem is that he has not yet moved forward himself, and it is really the same old Blair. There is no sense that he has learned from experience.

[Davide Simonetti]

The problem with Blair's speech is that it was largely written by the Bush administration.

From the UKs Daily Telegraph:

Tony Blair made significant changes to one of his most important foreign policy speeches after bowing to American objections, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.

The Prime Minister changed key passages on possible action against Iran, climate change, and a proposed shake-up of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Objections by President George W Bush's inner circle played a key role in the alterations, which were made just before Mr Blair delivered his landmark address at Georgetown University in Washington, on Friday, British sources have revealed.

Only three hours before the speech was delivered, Downing Street officials were briefing journalists that the Prime Minister would stress that "change should not be imposed" on Iran, reflecting the British view that bombing or invading Iran is not a realistic option.

American officials had insisted, however, that the possibility of military action remained "on the table", arguing that this helped to exert maximum pressure on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

By the time he made his speech, Mr Blair had significantly bowed to the American position, claiming "I am not saying we should impose change" and leaving the door open for a military attack.

He also backed away from a planned demand for a change in the running of the world's biggest financial institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The Prime Minister originally intended to spell out a plan for Europe and the United States to give up their exclusive rights to install their own nationals as heads of the bank and the IMF respectively.

This would help to persuade smaller nations to give up their effective right to choose the United Nations secretary general, in favour of a move to install a leading international figure. Instead, Mr Blair's speech glossed over the issues, merely citing a "powerful case for reform".

Another planned section was intended to take a tough line on global warming and the Kyoto Treaty, which Washington still has not signed.

In the event, Mr Blair merely claimed: "We must act on climate change", but did not go into detail. At this point, as a mobile telephone rang in the audience, he even made a joke about American interference. "I hope that isn't the White House telling me they don't agree with that," he said. "They act very quickly, these guys."

Full article here

One of the many problems with Tony Blair is this sycophantic relationship he has with George Bush in which he will so easily compromise the things he says he believes in. Another problem is that he is such a lier you can't believe a word he says anyway. What he is after is news-grabbing headlines to show that his legacy will not be the disaster it actually is.

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