Ignoring Our Biggest Threat Posted by Bill Perkins

As headlines focus on such issues as Iraq, Iran, and India, what I believe to be the single greatest threat to our national security remains largely disregarded by both our administration and national security scholars: the environment.

As President Bush recently admitted, global warming is here. We are already feeling the effects of climate change on our budget and domestic policy.  Total federal spending on Hurricane Katrina is estimated at over $100 billion.  Although the tsunami was not triggered by global warming, the U.S. government spent almost a billion dollars on tsunami relief including the efforts of 16,000 military personnel, and millions of refugees were created by the disaster.  Imagine the cost in human and financial currency if entire American cities and island nations had to be permanently evacuated due to rising sea levels, or if Katrina-like storms became the norm rather than the exception. With a projected budget deficit of $350 billion for each of the next two years and the national debt nearing $9 trillion, these are costs that we can ill afford.

Lest one think that these events were not related to greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, here are some facts to chew on. I recently read and highly recommend Tim Flannery’s The Weathermakers, in which he points out:

• 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have been since 1990 (p.79)

• without aggressive action to reduce emissions, a global temperature increase of 5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century “seems inevitable” (p.59)

• winter temperatures in southern Alaska are now 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than thirty years ago (p.98)

• the troposphere is expanding due to increasing greenhouse gases, “chang[ing] weather patterns globally and increas[ing] the likelihood of extreme weather events” (pp.135-36)

In keeping with the increased likelihood of extreme weather, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active in the 154 years that records have been kept.  

It is difficult to overstate the potential ramifications of these changes.  Rising temperatures in the American Southwest region (which could further increase by 3.6 to 12.6 degrees this century) are leading to ever-dwindling water supplies and, Flannery predicts, could lead to some major cities becoming uninhabitable (p.133-34).  Greenland’s glaciers were recently discovered to be melting at a dramatic rate, which could rise sea levels several feet by the end of the century. While the complete melting of Greenland would rise sea levels by 7 meters, even a 1-meter rise in sea levels would put half of Bangladesh underwater. A 2003 study by Tufts predicted that the cost of a 2-foot sea level rise to the city of Boston alone could be $20 billion this century.  A sea-level rise of 10 meters would flood 25% of the U.S. population.  In the 1960s 7 million people were affected by flooding annually; today 150 million are (Flannery 138). What would the impact be for our foreign and domestic policy were major American coastal cities and entire island nations to go underwater?

Our nation must begin to craft a coherent and aggressive national policy towards global warming. By taking steps now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we will be able to decrease the extent of climate change. Given how much the U.S. stands to lose from global warming, it seems inexplicable that we have not taken decisive action already. As Flannery points out,

“In terms of extreme weather events, it’s worth recording that the United States already has the most varied weather of any country on Earth, with more intense and damaging tornadoes, flash floods, intense thunderstorms, hurricanes, and blizzards than anywhere else. With the intensity of such events projected to increase as our planet warms, in purely human terms the United States would seem to have more to lose from climate change than any other large nation.  Indeed, its ever spiraling insurance bill resulting from severe weather events and its growing water shortages in the west mean that the United States is already paying dearly for its CO2 emissions.” (p.140)

Many examples exist of policy steps to be taken. Tony Blair has called climate change “perhaps the most challenging collective action problem the world has faced” and last week demanded a green “revolution” to slow global warming. Sweden plans to eliminate its dependency on oil by 2020 by focusing on renewable energy. And, despite the Bush administration’s intransigence on signing the Kyoto Protocol, 221 mayors of American cities have signed on to the Protocol’s emissions targets in a grassroots effort led by Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels. 

When will our national government follow their lead?

Also posted on Freedom Blog.

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The tsunami had nothing to do with climate change, it was caused by a magnitude 9 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra.

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