Latin America -- Live-Blog II Posted by Michael Signer

Let's set the scene a bit - -the Harvard Club in New York, mahogany everywhere, chandeliers with little linen lamp covers, a small glassed-in booth in the corner where the translators are sitting, and about thirty folks -- most Latin American -- seated around  a rectangular array of tables.  The doors here are actually covered in leather.

Andre Vitor Singer, a Brazilian political scientist, is speaking -- he says he's optimistic about democracy in Latin America. 

His argument is that democracy is good because it's competitive.  Bolivia is a prime example -- showing that there's not a crisis.   "It's a good moment." 

This was not just a Pollyanna moment, but a cheerleader one.

Jeff Laurenti of the Century Foundation turns the question back to Bolivia -- asks whether this is a "democracy on the brink."  The next speaker is Gustavo Fernandez, who looks like he's from central casting -- glossy, sculpted salt-and-pepper hair, wireless glasses -- a former Minister of Foreign Affairs for Bolivia.  Fernandez talks about the growth of democracy in Bolivia in the last century.  And, very interestingly, talks about how the people of Bolivia -- who desired change, economically, institutionally, and politically -- rationally chose the change represented by Morales.

He says he's worried about the concentration of power that's happening today in Bolivia -- this is an elder statesman who undoubtedly is unsettled by the profound change in his country.  Later, during questions, he says, "I have some doubts about the cultural direction of my country."  Doesn't like the new "cultural confrontation" between the Indians and Spanish -- but says it's more about rural versus urban -- very interesting.  More people now live in the cities -- "I think that is the conflict." 

There's a crisis of self-identity in a country struggling to retain its rural heritage.  Maybe this makes sense of the sweater.

Robert Pastor, a wry professor at American University, then speaks -- "Former Vice President Dan Quayle once said --"  the room breaks out in laughter.  "I didn't get to the funny part yet!"  Nice comic relief.  But I didn't hear the Quayle quote yet -- I suppose it's my loss.

The major question he discusses:  Is Latin America moving to the left?  A question that's wrong and misleading, for three reasons:

a)  When democracy succeeds, it by definition moves to the left, because it starts to include rather than exclude.  Very sophisticated point -- but sophistical, too.  You also have ample historical precedent for democracy allowing rightward moves, as, um, well, in the U.S. recently. 

b)  New leaders -- the process itself of them arising is good.  The genius of democracy is a peaceful framework for replacing leaders, allowing genuine competition.  This is a little naive, to me -- what about the illiberal democracy problem that Fareed Zakaria has written about?  What about demagogues with destabilizing tendencies arising in democracy?

c)  The question is defined by the Cold War -- many in D.C. can't stop thinking this way, but the truth is it's over and we won.  Now that's an interesting point.  Many of our hobbled by our investment in an ancient vocabulary and framework -- we can't even understand what's happening in these countries. 

He's bothered most by Chavez's manipulation of the electoral commission in Venezuela.  Electoral reform begins at home, and the Carter Center has shown we're not sufficiently democratic in the U.S.  "Engagement in the democratic process is central for all countries."  Citizens must be kept involved. 

Laurenti asks a question about corruption, its prevalence, and ways of dealing with it:  Singer (the Brazilian) minimizes the problem in his country -- "I will tell you, we are advanced in that direction."  Says the government has come up with many new policies against money-laundering (lots of laughs here -- clearly I'm not in the know); a new federal police force (like the FBI); new equipment; more than 10 major prosecutions against organized crime.  Furthermore, institutions like the press give reasons to be optimistic.

Bolivia:  Laurenti asks whether there's a possibility of military involvement in the new regime.  Fernandez explains that Brazil and Argentina have have massive interests in Bolivia.  They have a strong interest in Bolivian stability and are heavily involved.  They wouldn't allow a military coup.  Also there's a public opinion issue.  The prior regime eliminated two generations of military control, and the people liked it.  The people supported Morales so heavily they're unlikely to allow military power.  However, there's a separate concern (he keeps describing Morales as a "tsunami") -- the simple concentration of power, rather than the militarization of it.

Laurenti:  Should we be concerned about "plebiscitary caudilloism" (a topic close to my heart, as one who wrote a doctoral dissertation on demagogues and demagoguery), as seen in Chavez?  Pastor (the professor):  Chavez does not represent a threat to the U.S.  (Whoah!  Really?!)  We ought to be focusing our attention on the idea of Chavez eliminating his competition.  So it's the domestic institutions, stupid -- not the international stability. 

During the Q&A session, an American gentleman says everyone's been way too optimistic -- there's really a question about whether parties like the Workers' Party in Brazil will start to collect too much power.  There's a real debate going on in Latin America about whether the liberal democratic or authoritarian model is superior.  The question isn't finished.

Everyone's struggling with what to make of Chavez.  It's most interesting to watch the Latin Americans .  Another questioner, a Latin American -- also agrees that the question isn't finished.  The attrition of the political parties is a symptom.  Chavez would like to be in a club of new politicians of progressive forces -- but he doesn't.  He belongs to the "old club" of military, authoritarian rulers.  This is a less halcyon view than from the others.

An older gentleman from El Salvdor says the problem is a "lack of structured analysis" of the region.  Duarte -- the military was defending the net assets of the business sector, which was originally an agricultural oligarchy.  How can we build a democracy in El Salvador when 70% of the young people believe their only help for self-improvement is migration to the United States?  (This is a point that doesn't make any sense to me). 

Hey, a little bit pomo now:   Augusto Barrera, a member of the Municipal Council in Quito, Ecaudor, and a mild-mannered, bespectacled guy, says eight generations of government in Ecuador show that if this isn't a crisis of democracy, what is?  He wants us to look at the "notion of crisis."  Even the "notion of Latin America as an entity" ought to be questioned.  The access of indigenous folks to power has triggered the "deligitimatization of governments."  There's even a ranking of legitimacy, with Peru and Venezuela at the bottom, in the teens (unclear what the metric is, but it sounds good).  The democratic institutions are being "emptied of meanings," there's an accumulation of oligarchic, mafioso style power centers.  The media becomes an extraordinary source of power -- three stations in Ecuador alone belong to an oligarchic group that's "fled the country."

I like this guy.  This is worth the price of admission -- a deconstruction of the problems -- put the pieces back together again and we see there are deep problems, but the solutions might be different than we thought.  Media rather than autocrats.  Linkages between certain states, rather than their relationship just to the U.S.

A younger Mexican says there's a crisis of confidence generally, because the "democracies we've implemented are precarious."  He's saying that in Mexico three major parties now have access to money and power -- and that's it been bad.  Participation has dropped to 41% turnout.  There's a participation and legitimacy crisis.  (This I need to know more about -- doesn't seem plausible at first -- decreasing participation, as in the U.S. and certain Western European countries, can be a symbol of complacent acceptance of institutions, rather than the opposite).

Rafael Santos, the director of El Tiempo in Colombia:  there's a big concern in Colombia.  In the upcoming elections this fall, a majority of Parliament could be aligned with the paramilitary movement.  There's your crisis of democracy.

Check -- good to know.

In closing, Singer, the Brazilian, says truly good things are going on in Brazil with the formation, sophistication, and legitimacy of the Workers' Party in the competitive democratic system there.  There's reason for optimism about the leftist cause, intersected with democratization. 

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