Dr. Rice and the Other State of the Union Posted by Jeffrey Stacey

While all eyes were on the President casting his critics as isolationists in internationalist clothing, the U.S. foreign policy "state of the union" has been promoted over the last two weeks by Condoleezza Rice.  With all the zeal of full-fledged converts, Dr. Rice and her boss have come a long way from being quasi-isolationists in 2000 to adopting what they refer to as a "revolutionary" grand strategy.  In fact, the Administration has pulled off something of a double revolution even before our Secretary of State took up her new post.

Secretary Rice defines the strategy as the pursuit of democratic peace, premised on the notion that democracy is the global panacea to everything from terrorism to bad governance.  Indeed, though she is loathe to mention Woodrow Wilson she is unabashed about describing the strategy as "idealistic" and "optimistic" (and she is quoting Acheson and Truman left and right).  Her transformation from badmouthing nation building and bashing Democrats for not taking rivalries with an emerging China and resurgent Russia seriously is complete.

However, not only is this grand strategy incomplete and a bit naive, but in case you missed it we have now witnessed three different grand strategies from the Bush-Rice tandem.  They began pursuing a strategy in 2000 of--if not quasi-isolationism then--selective engagement, based on balance of power politics and only using the U.S. military if core national interests were at stake.  Post 9-11 the tandem did not adopt a democratic peace strategy; in fact, what became known as the Bush Doctrine rested entirely on the notion that states no longer must wait to act in self-defense but can engage in unilateral pre-emptive attacks if threatened.

Somewhere in the Iraqi hall of mirrors (i.e. the failure to locate WMDs) the rabbit went into the hat and--abracadabra--out came the democracy bunny.  This new strategic organism does retain its pre-emptive skeletel structure, but its sinews and skin are composed entirely--according to the tandem--of democratizing elements.  Thus, in truth we have before us Bush Doctrine II, which bears a striking resemblance to the core element of the Clinton Doctrine; it was the Clintonites who first espoused the wonders of a democratic peace strategy.

Calling things for what they are aside, is this freshly minted grand strategy sound?  Yes and no.  It is to the degree that Political Scientists have shown that democracies do not fight wars with each other (what Thomas Friedman ripped off when he wrote that no two states with McDonalds in them have ever fought); moreover, morally the U.S. does need to be on the side of freedom around the world. 

However, imposing democracy by force is riddled with problems that the Rice-Bush tandem do not recognize.  Beyond the naive notion that once implanted in Iraq it will magically spread throughout the Middle East (remember the lines about U.S. forces being met with flowers and the insurgency being in its last throes), research shows that democracies that don't fight each other are those with complete transitions to democracy.

Not only do successful democratic transitions occur only gradually--and without being imposed from outside--but states in transition are actually more prone to fight wars than their former nondemocratic selves.  Plus, particularly in the Middle East, it is not in the U.S. national interest to have Islamic political parties (with histories of waging violence) get elected--e.g. Hamas.

Moreover, key pillars of the muscular democratizing strategy work at cross purposes.  By retaining a preference for unilaterally projecting force to keep the U.S. secure, America misses the opportunity to achieve the same outcomes more efficiently (and cheaply) by relying more on allies, international institutions, and international law.  It should be a no brainer that effectively waging the global campaign against terrorism requires close coordination with allies (the U.S. can always pursue a unilteral approach if circumstances warrant).

Fortunately, in reality the muscular demcratizing grand strategy is being selectively implemented, for the Administration refuses to acknowledge that their piecemeal strategies for dealing with North Korea and Iran are fully multilateral.  The other answer is to promote offshore democratization, i.e. aiding NGOs who do third-party democracy work in places like Lenbanon and Russia.

Thus, the U.S. would be better served by a grand strategy of engagement, which pursues democracy more effectively and finds ways to take advantage of an interdependent world with allies working side by side the U.S. and paying for many things that U.S. taxpayers are now paying for.  Using American soft power does not preclude using hard power; rather, it augments a more comprehensive and interest-serving grand strategy.

In short, the state of the union is not sturdy; indeed, another foreign policy revolution is necessary.

Comments

[george popoff]

IT'S UNFORTUNATE THAT DEMOCRATS ARE ALITTLE TIMID WIMPS IN POINTING OUT STRONG POLITICAL TOPICS THAT GOT THEM ELECTED.
IF ONLY I COULD HAVE DEBATED BUSH INSTEAD OF GORE OR KERRY.....IT WOULD HAVE BEEN SO EASY TO TOTALLY BURY HIM WITH FACTS WHICH I SENT EMAILS TO THEIR AIDES INFORMING THEM
LTHJIS COUNTRY IS RUN BY CHENEY WHO FLUCNKED OUT OF COLLEGE AND ROVE WHO NEVER WENT TO COLLEGE AND BUSH WHO IS THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAINS ACTUALLY THINKING HE IS THE PRESIDENT!!!!!!!!!!WHAT AN IDIOT...THE POOR BOY
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I gather Mr. Popoff supports your criticism of the current direction U.S. foreign policy is taking, as do I. It is fascinating to have observed Bush wrongly arguing that Iraq was no longer deterred from using WMDs and then when none were found morphing preemption into a strategy to "spread freedom around the world" - if only Condi were talented enough to help our hapless President see that seeking the Democratic Peace is a lot more complex than he knows.

[Sue]

It is amazing our President got away with, as you put it, placing the rabbit into the hat and sugarcoating the militarist unilateral policy with all this hooey about democracy - "the tandem" wouldn't know about growing democracy in far away places if it hit them over the head. Seeing how we really have a multilateral foreign policy now when do you think Bush will actually admit it ... won't be holding my breath.

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YES, I REMEMBER THAT ARTICLE BY CONDI IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CALLING FOR COLD WAR REDUX - AS SMART AS SHE IS IT'S AMAZING SHE CAN TALK ABOUT PREEMPTION WITH A STRAIGHT FACE; NO DOUBT SHE'S ON MORE COMFORTABLE GROUND TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PEACE (BUT CAN SHE GET IT RIGHT?)

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"... the Bush Doctrine rested entirely on the notion that states no longer must wait to act in self-defense but can engage in unilateral pre-emptive attacks if threatened."

I think that isn't quite accurate.

The Bush Doctrine rested entirely on the notion that the USA no longer must wait to act in self-defense but can engage in unilateral pre-emptive attacks if Bush feels threatened -- by low poll numbers or whatever.

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