Iraq vs.Bosnia Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Before the holidays, Derek posted on Bosnia's lessons for Iraq.  Since Iraq's December elections, I've been haunted by the comparison in another respect -- the tendency of post-conflict elections to promote extremist, ethnic or confessional parties.

Commentators and the Administration seem unpleasantly surprised by the failure of secular and moderate Iraqi parties to do better in the December elections.  But they needn't have been.

Bosnia held elections less than a year after the Dayton Accords, in September 1996, and again in September 1998.  Both times, outsiders' hopes for the emergence of moderate leaders across the board were dashed.  The reason seemed pretty clear:  despite the strong presence of US and NATO troops, and a near-complete absence of violence since the war's end, the lesson that only ethnic alliances could provide any measure of security had been seared into voters' brains.

Why would we expect anything different in Iraq?

Furthermore, despite a ten-year military presence, more than 4.5 billion dollars of US and EU reconstruction aid, and a much more permissive security environment than Iraq's, ethnic-nationalist politicians remain dominant and the day that the EU and UN can disengage entirely, leaving behind a stable, fully-functioning state, remains distant.

Some of the outfits with the smartest non-partisan commentary on Iraq also happen to have great track records on Bosnia over the years, and retain tremendous in-house expertise.  (I am thinking of Crisis Group and USIP, but there are others.)  Why did all those smart folks who went out to Baghdad -- not just the neocons, but Diamond and Feldman and others -- think we could do with 26 million people living through guerrilla war what we couldn't do with 4 million people at peace in Bosnia?

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

The reason seemed pretty clear: despite the strong presence of US and NATO troops, and a near-complete absence of violence since the war's end, the lesson that only ethnic alliances could provide any measure of security had been seared into voters' brains.

That's a very good point Heather.

But I would also add that if you remove a non-democratic government and hold open elections, you are likely to find that the only parties that are positioned to compete strongly are those fashioned out of existing political organizations with broad, deep and popular roots. Even in a tyrannical state like Saddam's Iraq such groups exist, although they may be proscribed in certain ways and partly clandestine. These are the groups that have the networks, financial backers, mailing lists, fund-raising capabilities, membership lists, phone lists, organizational structure, and boots on the ground that will enable them to make the rapid change to an organized political party in a democratic system.

Prior to the war, as I understand it, there were five major organized political groups in or out of Iraq with a strong popular constituency inside the country: the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the Kurdish Democratic Party, Da'wa, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Ba'ath Party. Obviously only the latter possessed institutionally sanctioned power, but the others were there. After the removal of Saddam's regime, the Ba'ath Party was proscribed, and so it doesn't seem very surprising that the other four have dominated the political scene in Iraq since then.

It's not only that people band together out of fear along sectarian or ethnic lines. What is equally important is that if that is the way people are already organized, whether from fear or some other reason, we can expect that system of political organization to survive the change in regime. On the other hand, if you invade a country in which the only organized and popular political group outside the official power structure is the Communist Party - for example - then if you remove the government and hold open elections, you can expect the Communist Party to compete very strongly.

The US seems to have hoped that two other groups, the Iraqi National Accord or the Iraqi National Congress, would play a stronger role. But so far as I can tell, these were mainly expatriot groups, with no popular constituency to speak of inside Iraq. We might also recall that whatever power they did possess collectively was diminished by the fact that they were rivals for US backing, and the US government was divided between those in the State Department and the CIA who favored the INA, and those at Defense who favored the INC.

Why did all those smart folks who went out to Baghdad -- not just the neocons, but Diamond and Feldman and others -- think we could do with 26 million people living through guerrilla war what we couldn't do with 4 million people at peace in Bosnia?

I would say that what all these people have in common is that they believed that there was a subterranean, but widespread popular hankering in Iraq for constitutional democratic liberalism, with a strong Iraqi nationalist component - in other words political "moderates" by US standards. They imagined that once the oppressive shackles were released, a liberal democratic movement with national scope would fire up by spontaneous political combustion. But it looks like not that many Iraqis were really interested in such an American-style political development.

I think it is also worth noting that the myths of the invasion period are still perpetuated by dubious and culturally chauvinistic hypotheses that are now used to explain away the absence of the desired "moderate" liberal movement. For example, many seem inclined to believe that the absence of this movement shows that there is something "wrong" with the Iraqis - for example, that they must have been so deeply "traumatized" by their experiences of the last few decades (or centuries?) that they are unable to act rationally. This is a very pernicious belief, since it can lead one to believe that mentally healthy people are always nationalist, democratic liberals, and to expect that once the Iraqi people are "cured" they will fall into the hoped-for political pattern.

The old Vietnam-era saw that said "inside every gook is an American waiting to get out" seems just as strong as ever.

[Balenciaga handbags]

The old Vietnam-era saw that said "inside every gook is an American waiting to get out" seems just as strong as ever

[fake Gucci Cuff Links]

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please

[injection moulding]

Labels printed by China printing is very good quality and good prices.
Plastic products made by plastic injection molding services with low costs and supeior quality
Shoring scaffolding for construction is a very useful tool.

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[ghd]

ghd IV salon styler,ghd purple roll bag.

product features:


Auto sleep mode(A built in safety feature that gives you peace of mind by turning off if the ghd IV styler is left unallended for 30 minutes.)


Universal voltage(So that you can use your styler in any country without an adaptor.)


Advanced ceramic heaters(The ultimate heating technology for the ultimate shine and style creation.)

All our products are cheap,if you want to find cheap ghd,come here and that is right.

If you want to find GHD hair products,you can write GHD straightener,GHD hair straighteners,GHD straightners,GHD hair,straighteners GHD in google browse.

[chanel handbags]

Chanel Handbags are woman’s dream come true.

Chanel, a fashion name that has become synonymous with femininity since 100 years, is on the must-have list of every fashion-conscious woman.? And we bring these must-have Chanel Handbags at never before discounts, just for you.

It is only when you come across an Chanel New Arrivals, do you realize the power of her words.? Chanel handbags are crafted not just to be trendy, but trend-setting.? Hardly has lived a celebrity who has not been seen carrying a Chanel handbag under her arm; such has the influence of Chanel handbags as a fashion statement.

Chanel handbags have been so popular in the elite classes of the society, that their pricing is usually prohibitive for everyone else.? Discount Chanel handbags are really difficult to come across, but today should be your lucky day.? We bring you a superb unbeatable range of Chanel Flap bags, all at fantastic discounts.? With us, you have an incredible chance to buy your favorite Chanel handbags at rock bottom prices!

Chanel Handbags have always been at the forefront of luxury and style.? The Chanel classic quilted leather handbags and its reinventions have ruled fashion since forever.? Chanel handbags have remained extremely popular as they continue to merge evolving modern trends with the class and simplicity of its original avatar.

An Chanel 2008 Collection and Chanel 2009 Collection single handedly enhances the look you are carrying.? The reason you would buy a Chanel handbag is own a bag that mingles with your charm and intensifies it with its inherent simplicity.? If you have owned an authentic Chanel handbag before, you know what we are talking about.? If you are one of the unlucky people who haven’t yet gotten a chance to own an Chanel Cambon, now is your chance to shop for an authentic Chanel handbag and discover its ability to transform your look completely.

Buy Chanel handbags with us, and get fabulous discounts which you will never get at your favorite store.? We offer cheap authentic Chanel handbags and they are all up for grabs!

[watches]

If you like your Raymond Weil Replica big,bold,and durable,then the new GA100 line of G-Shocks will make your day.Available in white,yellow,and black,you get the "basic" G-Shock feature set in a new,larger case for a list price of only $99:Water resistant to 200m (660ft).Resin case,mineral crystal.Anti-magnetic case structure.Servo controlled hour and minute hands with 4-LCD digital displays.1/1000th of a second stop Panerai Replica Watches with unique "Speed" dial (tachometer).48 city world time,stop Cartier Replica Watches,countdown timer,five alarms.Casio module 5081 (PDF) with a 2 year battery life.LED dial illumination,automatic or manual with adjustable time duration.51mm across by 17mm thick,65g,22mm strap.(A bit larger than most G-Shocks,but quite light in weight.)Please read on for the rest of the review and pictures.Casio has been introducing bolder colors of late,and the X-Large series (as the GA100s are known) continues the trend.Look at the closeup here and notice that the hands and markers are actually purple! IWC Replica Watches not something that jumps out on the wrist,but you can see it up close.The white of the case and dial is bright and polished,yielding stormtrooper jokes from my friends.This is not a Omgea Replica Watches that goes unnoticed! The white does,however,look great on a tanned arm and is a very inexpensive way to make a statement.At $99,the GA-100 line is less expensive than many G-Shocks,and I'd be hard pressed to find any others for that price that included the more complex analog-digital functionality.Obviously missing are solar power and atomic timekeeping (radio setting),though for the price,I'm still impressed.Case construction is that of most G-Shocks: resin case,screwed stainless steel caseback,inset crosshatched buttons,integral raised bezel.The strap is an integrated,dual-tang thorn buckle,and is quite comfortable.One new feature on the GA-100s is the "speed" dial at 12 o'clock.You set a distance,then use the stop Breitling Replica Watches to measure times.Once you've done so,the dial indicates speed.Basically a tachometer,though digital and on a subdial instead of the bezel as normally seen.Might be useful for racing fans,coaches and the like.Also of note is the fact that the stop Breguet Replica Watches is unusual,measuring the ludicrously precise 1/1000th of a second up to 100 hours.Given human reflexes,I'm dubious as to how much of that precision is useful,but Jaeger LeCoultre Replica certainly quite cool and not commonly seen.On the wrist,the GA-100 is very comfortable.The light weight is spread across a larger area,reducing the already-light weight.The hands are easy to read at a glance,though the LCD panels are a bit more reflective than I'd like and take a bit more effort to read.Two overall comments: First,it's a G-Shock,meaning that functionally,it's impeccable.Bulletproof,inexpensive,functional,and reliable.Secondly,the size and bold colors will either appeal to your,or they won't,so make your decision based on whether you like it or not.At $99,it's an easy Gucci Replica Watchesh to recommend.Our thanks to Casio PR for the review unit.By Paul Hubbard; For updates on content,follow Concord Replica Watches Report on Twitter.