H2O in China: A Security Fundamental Posted by Lorelei Kelly

The World Economic Forum kicked off its 2006 Davos meeting today.  China was a headliner with vice premier Zeng Peiyan giving a plenary speech focussed on sustainable energy and environment. (podcast here, Forum weblog here)  Hopefully, America's security policy community is paying attention.

China's leaders are not do-gooders.  Sustainable environmental practices are a key security issue for China because energy resources--specifically water-- is the plaform with the most potential for nation wide citizen mobilization.  No doubt spooked by civil unrest, China's communist leaders are trying to figure out ways to introduce participation methods that will allow civil society to evolve in a controlled manner.   Responding to the mass concerns over water is one way to do that.

Environment has always been a security issue.  Today, however, America  must figure out ways to measure its impact on democracy so we can start to replace the military dominance premise that still prevails in US Government decision making.  I'd even argue that our failure to understand the intersection of environment and civil society is one of the reasons the end of the Cold War was such a shock.

I lived in Berlin in 1989--and had the good fortune to work with the underground democracy movements in the East during the twilight of the Cold War.  Among the places I remember best was a shabby basement on a street full of machine-gunned facades-- that housed a room made into an eco-library. East Germans shared their scraps of democracy in rooms like that--a book or magazine about the environment would get passed through hundreds of hands. The solidarity built through those knowledge networks is what made the impossible turn into the inevitable-- the Berlin Wall fell.

Since much of our security policy regarding China is as simplistic as a search and replace text excercise--substituting "Soviet" for "Chinese", are we making the same security omissions today as we did during the Cold War? I asked my great friend Carey Moore, who runs the Pacific Village Institute  in Seattle, to comment on water and democracy, and why we would do well to understand the security implications of environment and citizen participation.

When it comes to China, energy is the security issue, domestically within China, as well as regionally and globally.  Domestically, China has been able to support 20% of the world's population on only 7% of the Earth's arable land.  As economic growth continues at a phenomenal rate (the fastest growing economy in Asia for the past 20 years), China has had to confront ever more pressing environmental concerns that threaten the long-term sustainability of this balance.  By 2025, China will overtake the US as the top emitter of greenhouse gases.  By 2030, based on current trends, China will consume 99 million barrels of oil per day. (Total world production today is only 84 million bpd.)

Hydroelectricity is integral fuel for China's booming economic engine. While it provides an alternative to disease and pollution caused by coal, the sheer multitude and magnitude of these projects - some of a scope unprecedented in human history, dams also force the relocation of thousands of farmers and villagers who are becoming increasingly vocal and informed about their legal options.    There is nothing more fundamental than water - the vital substance of life and livelihoods - to fuel grassroots movements.  All over China, water issues reflect not only villagers dislocated from land and traditional communities, but also related widespread political corruption and industrial pollution (half the water in its seven largest rivers is polluted beyond use).  Last year there were 74,000 incidents of social unrest in China, a number that is rising along with the level of reservoirs from new dams.  Mobilizing around energy (and specifically water) is to China as the solidarity labor movement was to Poland.

Flowing from these awesome challenges are vital opportunities that China is paving for the rest of us, driven by their need to survive and therefore lead a way toward sustainable development.  The growing awareness of these ominous environmental trends has galvanized some of the first "non-governmental" grassroots organizations and movements in China today, as well as major alternative energy developments.  China's 11th five-year plan includes a program to sharply reduce China's energy usage per unit of G.D.P. by 2010, and includes renewable energy laws.  Just as the masses leaped from sparse and regulated phone booths to a cell phone culture, so too does China have the potential radically shift the global security environment for better and for worse.  But the target of interest here is the spigot / local river....(not the headline splash of China's military hardware).

Well put Carey...

Comments

[Craig]

Lorelei, I hope you stay on top of developments on this issue. There's no question in my mind that China is developing a comprehensive energy policy, and it's not restricted to acquiring oil or working with India and Russia on common energy issues or building hydroelectric dams. Everything the Chinese are doing seems to recognize that the energy market is getting tighter. They're even specifically cooperating with India on renewable energy. I'm skeptical of China's environmental policies but I'm willing to learn more about them.

A useful question to ask is how much of China's energy policy is geared towards the environment and the reduction of pollution and how much is it a recognition of tightening energy supplies, particularly when it comes to light sweet crude?

I would also like to understand better the heavy-handed method the Chinese use of converting farm land to such projects as hydroelectric dams and windmill farms. And how do these conversions impact on food sustainability?

Given the level of pollution in China, is their environmental policy only geared to getting under control a system that's gotten way out of whack or are they really moving towards meaningful long-term reforms?

I would also like to hear from experts in renewable energy and the environment. Is the US losing an opportunity to lead in the development of technology in this area?

I know to some these don't seem like foreign policy questions but in fact they will become a growing part of foreign policy discussions in the years ahead.

Finally, if the Chinese have a real energy policy and we don't (I'm assuming we don't count Bush's fantasies of empire), what are the implications?

[Robichaud]

Interesting post, Lorelei. Moore's claim that "Mobilizing around energy (and specifically water) is to China as the solidarity labor movement was to Poland" is pretty intriguing; Does anyone know of other examples where an environmental issue played such a central role? I haven't read Jared Diamond's "Collapse" yet, but I imagine there are some examples there...

[David Billington]

Lorelei - The problem with water in China is not the engineering of rivers as much as it is the falling water table caused by agriculture and climate change. The threat to arable land is not competition from water projects but competition from industry and urban areas for available land.

Although it was a factor, I don't think environmental activism played a significant role in the downfall of Soviet Europe, and Western hopes about its transformative effects in the early 1970s were not fulfilled.

It is hard to see environmentalism emerging as a catalyst for democratic change in China unless the state makes no effort to accommodate it. Present indications are that the state is aware that it has a problem, although whether it has the will to address it remains to be seen. The real danger in China is that the stresses on land, water, and energy may not be possible for any government to manage. In that case democracy might result but whether China would remain democratic might then be the question.

If competition for natural resources intensifies, China may turn to inner Asia. In addition to oil and gas, Russia also has fresh water (Lake Baikal and some Siberian rivers). If Beijing still needs and doesn't get access to these resources on acceptable terms, the result could be a very dangerous situation.

[Lorelei Kelly]

Thanks for these comments. Carey, are you reading? I need help answering! I will start to educate myself on these issues and hopefully soon Democracy Arsenal will have an "Asia" listing!

[David Billington]

Lorelei - Here is a report you might find useful:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-04/20/content_435724.htm

One question about the future is how much more efficiently China could use water in its agriculture, since over half of the country's water is used for farming. More efficient practices could bring a substantial gain in available water. The country will need to manage its resources more effectively to sustain any improvement.

[Carey Moore]

Great questions! A few resources to offer:

For those of you interested in learning more about this topic, check out the China Environment Forum (www.wilsoncenter.org/cef) coordinated by Jennifer Turner out of the Woodrow Wilson Center in DC. This is an excellent resource that promotes dialogue among U.S. and Chinese scholars, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizations on environmental and energy challenges in China. Their work focuses on Energy, Water, Governance and Land Use, and the site lists timely publications.

A particularly relevant Congressional Testimony given by Dr. Turner, "The Growing Role of Chinese Green NGOs and Environmental Journalists in China" (www.cecc.gov/pages/roundtables/012703/turnerHandout.php), explains that "the Chinese leadership is aware that the government cannot solve the serious environmental problems alone, which explains why political space has opened up for eco-entrepreneurs..." These environmental NGOs and journalists are at the forefront of civil society development in China because of their relative freedom and also because they have been a model of inspiration and organization for other groups and networks. A more recent article on this topic is in the new State of the World 2006: http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/sow/2006/.

Public Radio also aired a series on China this month that includes a piece, "Towards a More Sustainable China," (http://marketplace.publicradio.org/features/china2006/) with the lead in: "Conventional wisdom suggests that China has yet to go green. But the Chinese government wants to leapfrog Western-style industrialization and pioneer a whole new Green economy." Wen Bo, one of the movement's leaders, is also interviewed on the "Price of China's Pace" (http://www.pacificenvironment.org/article.php?id=854).

[Mark Christopher]

Thank you for the post. If you remain interested in this topic, other names you might look out for are Ma Jun, author of "China's Water Crisis" and Elizabeth Economy, author of "The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future" [full disclosure: I work with Dr. Economy on these issues at the Council on Foreign Relations].

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