A Fractured Iraqi Government -- Will It Heal Stronger? Posted by Michael Signer

So what are we to make of the results of the Iraq election, showing the Shi'a majority in decline (not even a majority), and Sunnis on the rise?

Not to sound like the famous two-handed economist, but On the One Hand:  Political Science 101 counsels that coalition governments under parliamentary systems are constitutionally unstable, leading to vetoes by coalition members and uncertain and shifting agendas for the populace's consideration.  Nowhere would this be more true than in Iraq, where the members of the "coalition" haven't even necessary bought into the most fundamental premise of government -- the yielding of your own potential for violence to the central government's monopoly on it.

But -- On the Other Hand -- precisely because Iraq is so fractious, and these nation-like elements have not, heretofore, demonstrated a willingness and interest in laying down arms to join the state, the very fact that they may enter a coalition is progress unto itself.

Mixed messages, to be sure -- but perhaps a whiff of progress.  The fact that the truth is somewhere in between says to me that the critical, do-or-die task for the United States is to do whatever we can to increase the legitimacy and popular acceptance of Iraq's central political institutions.  Whether this entails massive inculcation among the populace -- especially restless youth -- of the value of a legitimate central government with a monopoly on violence; general education about the history, reasons, and value of a parliamentary system; and money, staff, and hard infrastructure for the government itself -- we need to do it.

Comments

[Matthew Shugart]

"Political Science 101 counsels that coalition governments under parliamentary systems are constitutionally unstable..."

Uh, that ceased to be the consensus political-science view more than 30 years ago.