Bolton's UN Budget Brouhaha Posted by Suzanne Nossel

Mort rightly notes that there's a disaster in the making at the UN, with the US - at Ambassador John Bolton's instigation - threatening to block passage of this year's biennial budget unless the membership agrees to set aside monies to finance a series of reforms that haven't yet been agreed.

This is all the depressing and utterly predictable result of the failure of this September's UN Summit on reform to deliver tangible results.  I'm glad there's still a debate alive on prospects for converting the UN's disgraced Commission on Human Rights into a more credible Human Rights Council, but I'd be amazed if this actually happens.   In assessing the situation now, I part ways with a lot of progressives (probably including Mort) on the issue of UN reform and how to make it happen .  .  . (also read on for my prediction on how all this plays out in the coming weeks)

The UN had a moment this past fall with more than a hundred heads of state in attendance where, had there been a package anywhere close to agreement, it might have been possible to push through some broad reforms.  But owing to Annan's impotence, Bolton's recklessness and much of the UN membership's fecklessness, that window closed without a deal.

Bolton is not wrong to think that the US must directly use its leverage as the UN's largest contributor to force changes to the organization.  I've been in the eye of the hurricane of UN reform efforts and have learned the hard way that even with a big stick, the organization is remarkably hard to unstick.   

A threat to block the budget is not as outrageous as many make it sound.    There's a case to be made that if you're advocating ceaselessly for major changes to the organization, to simply continue to willingly fund business as usual undercuts prospects for success.  That's why the Japanese, hardly known for hardball undiplomatic approaches, seem to have some sympathy for Bolton.

But there is a fundamental flaw with Bolton's approach.   He's issued his ultimatum with a timeframe that makes it impossible for the world body to respond, and that renders his push for reform more likely to shove the UN off a cliff.   It's the difference between a woman who threatens to leave her boyfriend if he doesn't propose by Friday, and one who calmly announces that if the relationship doesn't lead to a firm commitment in the next year or so, she will move on.

Had the US said a year ago that if Annan's reform process did not produce certain specific changes (e.g. to the Human Rights Council and in other priority areas) the US would withhold approval of the 2006-07 budget, that actually might have worked.  It would have given our delegation and others enough time to try to cobble together a compromise, urgency heightened by the shadow of financial gloom.   The threat of possible future withholdings, though the UN membership would hate it, is much more acceptable than actual arrears.   

That's what happend in 1999 when the US had to settle its debts to the UN under the leadership of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke.  We had a year to drive through a very tough deal against the backdrop of non-payment of US dues and we got the job done.   The agenda was painful and unpopular, but the membership knew we were serious and we pushed through a package of historic financial reforms.  If you want a detailed account, read this article.

The saddest part of what's unfolding right now at Turtle Bay is that nearly 5 years into the Bush Administration, that crowd still hasn't figured out how to work the UN to advance US interests.   Despite endless hard-headed and practical advice, we're still misfiring, antagonizing others and failing the cause of reform. 

On what happens next, here's my prediction:  Bolton talks big until the last minute, then folds under pressure and either abstains or joins consensus on the biennial budget, while talking a good game on some other compromise we got that will supposedly advance the reform process. 

As much weight as it has to throw around at the UN, blocking the budget entirely is no small matter and will enflame relations with UN delegations from around the globe.  Plus, having blocked adoption of a budget, we'll make it impossible to rally the UN's support in areas where we may need them, such as new peacekeeping operations.   In the end, Bolton will reverse course and - sadly - the cause of reform will continue to sputter.

Comments

[MNPundit]

It's what the Congressional GOP does all the time. Bring up a law and include something truly awful in it to force Dems to vote against it then say "Look you voted against X your cold-hearted elite!"

Case in point? The Immediate Withdrawal from Iraq resolution. Luckily that one didn't work, but it's the same thing as the UN situation. Bolton offers an impossible deal, the UN cannot accept it for various reasons, and then he gets to scream about how they don't want change, reform, corrupt etc. and then the Bushies can go on their merry way saying "Hey, at least we tried!" and come out smelling like a rose.

It's not misfiring, they honestly don't WANT to work with the UN more than they have to. This plays to their base, and their pocketbook.

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