Iraqi Constitution Posted by Suzanne Nossel

Reader Lane Brody validly complains that we here have failed to opine on the Iraqi election.  Here's why I haven't dealt with the topic:

1.  It's impossible to judge whether the elections will prove a significant stride toward a stable Iraq or not.  I've read cogent arguments to the effect that the constitution advances the cause of a unified Iraq, and compelling claims that it will do just the opposite.

2.  Having sidestepped many of the most contentious issues, and because it is subject to further amendment, its hard to tell to what degree the constitution will entrench the principles it embodies into Iraqi culture and politics.

3.  Its not clear to what degree passage of the constitution will ease the US's dilemma.  That election day proceeded peacefully this time is certainly encouraging, but previous milestones including the end of the formal occupation and the January elections both failed to cramp the insurgency.

It would be great to think that the elections represent an important step toward establishing a viable democracy in Iraq.  To Lane's point, not only do we want the best for the Iraqi people, but we also believe that preventing Iraq from becoming a failed state is a vital US interest.  And its possible they might be.  But we've witnessed many hopeful turning points in Iraq thus far (Saddam Hussein's capture being top of mind today), only to see things sink backward into mayhem.

This is a small side issue, but I have a piece on the American Prospect website today about the failure to enlist international election monitors for Iraq. 

A footnote:  Matt Yglesias at TPM Cafe asks whether in fact it would have been possible to enlist foreign observers to put themselves in harm's way at Iraqi polling stations.  I honestly believe it would have.  I've done election monitoring in Bosnia and South Africa (in the latter I also did what we use to term "violence monitoring" - going out to situations in the townships like political funerals where violence was likely to occur in order to mediate, signal to the parties and authorities that they were being watched, etc.).   I always encountered people who were utterly passionate about this kind of work, fearless in the manner of war correspondents.  If given the chance, they would have gone to Iraq.

Comments

[Lane Brody]

I'm not sure I complained as much as made the observation; moreover, I wasn't commenting on the actual constitution but merely on the process. I'm sure Iraq's political future, including it's constitution, are at best extremely problematic.

The fact is more people voted this time, including many more sunni's, with far less violence than last time. They will vote again in 2 months. Three elections with large turnouts certainly looks like democracy.

Is it possible that the constant theme that Iraq is in "mayhem" is either not the whole story or perhaps even not the correct story? The press has reported for a very long time on the suicide bombing attacks in Iraq, almost all against civilians, with the impression that this shows the insurgency is winning.

In fact the #2 at Al Qaeda has to write a letter to Al Qaeda in Iraq and tell them killing innocent Iraq's is a long term losing tactic? According to almost all the world's press the past few years he's wrong...

Lane Brody

[doc]

"Three elections with large turnouts certainly looks like democracy."

'looks like' is the operative phrase here.

if US troops weren't there, there would have been no elections.

if we pull out next year, there will be no democracy.

it will 'look like' democracy only as long as we continue to occupy the country.

[doc]

"Three elections with large turnouts certainly looks like democracy."

'looks like' is the operative phrase here.

if US troops weren't there, there would have been no elections.

if we pull out next year, there will be no democracy.

it will 'look like' democracy only as long as we continue to occupy the country.

[J Thomas]

Given the pathetic reporting, there's no way for US civilians to be clear what's going on in iraq. Iraqi bloggers can fill in the gaps provided you know which ones are subsidised to spread disinformation and provided you remember that they all tend to be rich.

The US media started focusing in car bombs that killed iraqi civilians just when the argument was that most of the violence was against US troops and if we pulled out it might just die down. We didn't emphasize that before. Was it just as bad all along? How would we know?

You might as well figure that every bit of information coming out of iraq was provided by somebody who pushed it because of their political agenda. You basicly don't know anything.

Data to look for: Big explosions in the Green Zone, not just 155mm mortar shells and rockets. Big explosions that can't get covered up. US passenger planes getting shot down. Specific stories that veterans who were there say were true, veterans you know personally who refuse to let you repeat them with their names attached. Reports of serious supply shortages. All these are signs that things are going very badly.

Believable data that things are going better than expected: News people going places that used to be too dangerous. Going there without escorts. Getting interviews with local leaders who say they're handling their own security. Actually, it doesn't matter what the reporters report. If they feel safe enough to go out and report news away from the immediate protection of the US military that's a big sign of progress.

Apart from it's propaganda value in the USA, what matters about the referendum is what iraqis think about it. If it's true a lot of them voted that implies they think it's something more than a bunch of american puppets playing a puppet show. That's good, if true. But we don't know what iraqis think.

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