Referendum and Next Steps in Iraq Posted by Heather Hurlburt

A very fast airport post recommending this new short piece from the International Crisis Group, laying out what they think would be necessary to avert constitution-related disaster and a slide toward open civil conflict in Iraq:  US-guaranteed negotiations to bring the Sunnis in and make it more difficult for regions (especially the Shiite south) to secede, effectively, from the whole; an end to de-Baathification; and commitments that the parties would take steps after the referendum to remedy some of the elements or absences of the constitution that are most worrisome to Sunnis.

I'm not sure this is truly a realistic option anymore, particularly in the next three weeks, but it does bring the issues into sharp relief.  It also does nothing to answer the question of when the US just needs to get out of the middle of the mess.

Oops, boarding.  Go read it and think about how anyone can get at these key issues, before or after a referendum

Comments

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...not sure anyone can get to the issues before the referendum. further, not sure the current US administration has any interest in doing so.

and after the referendum will be far too late.

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