The List Goes On: If Iraq Fails Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Two consequences implicit in Suzanne's list of consequences if Iraq fails that I want to make explicit.   Both are the exact opposite of this Administration's stated goals; military force is a blunt instrument, folks.

The Kurds and Turkey.  "Instability in the Middle East" doesn't begin to cover the ripples if the Kurds walk out of Iraq.  The Turks have been very clear about their intention to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish state by any means necessary.  If Turkey finds itself again ensnared in fighting, occupation and atrocities on its southeastern border, that has ugly knock-on effects on its relations with Europe, its prospects for integration and economic modernization, and its internal balance of democratic, military and Islamic forces more generally.  Not to mention the ugly knock-on effects for human beings.

The US democracy establishment  By this I mean everybody from governmental or quasi-governmental democracy-promoters such as USAID, the National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute, but also wholly private outfits that may or may not have supported or participated in Iraq (George Soros' Open Society Institute comes to mind).  Suzanne cites this as a negative consequence for the Middle East.  But one can imagine a scenario under which the ferment in that region does produce some movement toward openness, though not necessarily producing governments the US likes -- but at the same time cripples or even destroys the ability of any US citizens to be effective promoters of democracy anywhere.   Just try showing up in Togo or Uzbekistan and saying, "I'm from America, I'm here to help you build democracy, and you can count on me.  No, really."

So if one takes seriously the neo-con goals of strengthening "moderate Islamic governments" and promoting America's democracy as a model and source of assistance for others seeking freedom, it sure seems like one would have to re-assess the theoretical underpinnings of this war. 

And for the record, if our posters who responded to Suzanne's list by insisting that, roughly, "the good guys are winning," turn out to be right, and we have seen the worst in Iraq, I will delightedly take to the keyboard to apologize.

Comments

[Greg Priddy]

So if one takes seriously the neo-con goals of strengthening "moderate Islamic governments" and promoting America's democracy as a model and source of assistance for others seeking freedom, it sure seems like one would have to re-assess the theoretical underpinnings of this war.

Exactly -- and let me extend a warm welcome to the Reality-Based Community [tm]...

However things turn out in Iraq (and it doesn't look good at this point), we do need to re-assess the theoretical underpinnings of the war. Was the grand neoconservative vision of solving the problem of terrorism by "transforming the Middle East" ever feasible? What we've seen in Iraq, I think, is likely to be the pattern around the region -- when secular authoritarian rulers are deposed, their successors are likely to be Islamists. Is "democracy within the bounds set by Islamic law" real democracy? Not by most Americans standards, but of course, that's all a matter of value judgement -- and most people over there would see that very differently than we would.

At present, very few people in the Arab world have any interest in hearing from Americans about shaping their political sphere -- especially given the lenses through which the majority of them view us: the situation in Iraq and the Palestinian issue. There *is* plenty of interest in political change, but relatively little in doing so under American supervision or even guidance. I do believe that, once things settle a bit, we may have a role to play, but we're going to have to learn to approach it with more humility and less hubris -- accepting that their political systems are going to reflect their values, not ours.

The "natives" over there don't seem to have much interest in having us "civilize" them... we need to accept that, and start taking that into account in developing policy toward the region.

[Demosophist]

o if one takes seriously the neo-con goals of strengthening "moderate Islamic governments" and promoting America's democracy as a model and source of assistance for others seeking freedom, it sure seems like one would have to re-assess the theoretical underpinnings of this war.

I have no idea what this means. From my perspective I see a vast bureaucracy intent on maintaining its own prerogatives and not really committed to the task at hand. They're protecting turf, and their own jobs.

But I still have no idea what is meant by the "theoretical underpinnings of this war." It's not theory that's the problem, but implementation. And it's fine to have a theory that the US can instill democratic change based on the rank charisma of its traditions, but at some point you have to actually believe you can do it, and you have to stop pumping new wine into old bottles.

I'll be honest, I think this administration has simply rejected most of the people who are sufficiently creative and knowledgeable to actually implement its policies. So they're going to put together a banana peel and call it a shoe. Think about it.

[JohnFH]

I appreciate Heather's candor. Has anyone here read the draft Constitution? It reads a lot better than I thought it would. The drawdown business relates to next summer at the earliest. The Constitution deserves discussion now.

[Demosophist]

I don't think any of the armchair genernals, on this list or anywhere else, really have any idea how things are going in Iraq vis the counter-insurgency. But I do know that nearly all of the people who are actually close to the fight (rather than sitting in some bar in the Green Zone writing hearsay) all indicate that we're winning. They say that because they can see the myriad small victories that daily escape the notice and accounting of mainstream media.

Unfortunately that doesn't mean that we've won. Nor does it insure victory.

[J Thomas]

Demosophist, I'm not getting that from the enlisted men and low-ranking officers who've discussed it privately with me.

Maybe the small victories are at too high a level for them to see. Or maybe it's all turned around in the weeks and months since they came home.

[9Dragons gold]

Welcom to play the game,i like to earn the 9 Dragons gold,and i like to play with my friends to buy 9 Dragons gold together.Even though there is a lot of equipment of me, but i do not satisfy my these equipment so i go to buy some new equipment with the cheap 9Dragons gold. I often introduce the game to my friends and ask them if you want to have a lot of 9Dragons money,you can play the game well.Come on and join us to play the game.

[runescape gold]

I hope i can get rs gold in low price.

[Atlantica online Gold]

If you have Atlantica online Gold, you can get more. If you gave Atlantica Gold to me, I still have my idea to achieve.

[angels online gold]

I hope i can get angels gold in low price,
Yesterday i buy angels gold for my friend.

[cheap shaiya gold]

I like theshaiya gold, my brother usually
shaiya money for me. I appriciate him.